支持“一带一路”低碳发展的绿色金融路线图
清华大学与Vivid Economics课题组
有为政府+有效市场、区域金融发展与经济增长—— 中国经济增长的实证分析
邹新月 涂仕达
传染性公共卫生事件的市场反应研究—— 基于新冠肺炎疫情对中国股市的影响
陈 林 曲晓辉
中国网络借贷机构良性退出策略 —— 基于演化博弈的分析
张成虎 刘 鑫 王 琪
中美金融市场信息溢出效应检验
袁 薇 王培辉
英国保险法中人身保险利益制度改革研究
于海纯 罗淑秀
“三明治夹心”一代的家庭抚养责任与人身保险需求
王宏扬 樊纲治
工银研究“疫情冲击下的全球金融风险及其防范”研讨会在京举行
支持“一带一路”低碳发展的绿色金融路线图
清华大学与Vivid Economics课题组
本文对“一带一路”国家的增长前景及其与碳排放的关系进行分行业测算，测算表明：基于历史上的发展模式和增长预测并假设当前趋势不变，则“一带一路”主要国家的排放量将高于《巴黎协定》所要求的排放目标；若不改变“一带一路”国家现有的碳排放趋势，即使全球其他国家均实现“2度情景”所要求的减排目标，到2050年全球温度仍可能处于未来上升近3摄氏度的发展路径。为促进“一带一路”国家向可持续发展模式转型，实现《巴黎协定》的全球气候目标，有必要在“一带一路”倡议中强调绿色低碳投资的关键作用。
A Green Finance Roadmap to Support the Low Carbon Development of
the Belt and Road Initiative
The Study Group of Tsinghua University and Vivid Economics
This study estimates the industrial growth expectation and carbon emission for Belt and Road countries (B&R countries). The results indicate that, given the historical patterns of development and investment, as well as the growth forecast unchanged, the carbon emission of major B&R countries would exceed the 2-Degree Scenario(2DS), the Paris Agreement’s global warming limit. Even if all the other countries could follow the 2DS path, there could be a 3 degrees Celsius rise of warming pathway in global temperature by 2050. Thus it should be emphasized in B&R countries that, green finance and low-carbon investment are the keys to transforming to the sustainable development mode and meeting the global climate goal in Paris Agreement.
有为政府+有效市场、区域金融发展与经济增长——中国经济增长的实证分析
邹新月 涂仕达
本文基于地方政府行为模式框架探讨政府与市场协调和互动机制以促进经济增长的关系。通过研究发现：“有为政府”+“有效市场”模式是中国经济增长奇迹的有力解释；政府和市场对于经济的促进作用存在区域结构性差异和发展阶段性差异，但结论整体表明：强调市场在资源配置中的核心作用，并且通过政府解决外部性问题和协调问题，比较资源禀赋优势加入世界经济全球化的分工体系中，是中国经济产业升级和持续不断的经济结构转型的动力。引入金融发展程度指标后研究表明，随着金融发展效率提高，市场化程度对于经济发展的解释力先增后减。
Promising Government + Efficient Market, Regional Financial Development and Economic Growth——An Empirical Analysis of China’s Economic Growth
ZOU Xin-yue TU Shi-da
Based on the model of local government behavior, this article discusses the relationship between the coordination and interaction mechanism of government and market and the promotion of economic growth. It is found that the “promising government” + “effective market” model is a persuasive explanation for China’s economic growth miracle; the roles of government and market in promoting economy vary in different regional structures and development stages, but the overall conclusions show that emphasizing the pivotal role of market in resource allocation, solving the problems of externality and coordination by government, participating in the economic globalization and specialization with the comparative resource endowment advantage, and the government taking advantage of situation proactively are the driving forces for China’s economic and industrial upgrading and continuous economic structural transformation.
传染性公共卫生事件的市场反应研究——基于新冠肺炎疫情对中国股市的影响
陈 林 曲晓辉
本文利用面板数据固定效应模型研究2020年新冠肺炎疫情对沪深股票回报的影响。实证数据显示，确诊病例增长率与股票回报呈倒U型关系，死亡病例增长率与股票回报呈U型关系。进一步研究发现，公司规模越小、财务杠杆水平越高，疫情对股票回报的负面影响越严重；同时，位于疫情严重省份的上市公司的股价受疫情的影响更大。此外，不同行业和不同类型股票市场受到的影响也存在差异。以上结果说明新冠肺炎疫情对公司的股价存在负面影响，而且投资者能够理性地区分不同公司所受的影响。
Market Response to Contagious Public Health Events——A Research Based on COVID-19’s Impact on Chinese Stock Market
CHEN Lin QU Xiao-hui
This paper studies the effects of 2020 COVID-19 epidemic on the stock return in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets with the panel data fixed effect model. The empirical results show that, stock return’s relationship with the growth rate of confirmed cases is inverted U-shaped, while its relationship with the growth rate of death is U-shaped. Further findings show that, the epidemic’s effects are worse for companies with smaller size and higher leverage ratio, and the effects are stronger for listed companies in severely influenced provinces. Besides, the effects vary among stock markets in different industries and of different types. It is concluded that COVID-19 epidemic has negative effects on the stock price and investors could rationally recognize the different effects on different companies.
中国网络借贷机构良性退出策略——基于演化博弈的分析
张成虎 刘 鑫 王 琪
本文构建地方政府和网络借贷机构的演化博弈模型，探讨如何在地方政府的参与下实现网络借贷机构的良性退出，并采用数值模拟剖析网络借贷机构退出的动态演化路径及其影响因素。研究表明，对于不同的影响因素取值，地方政府和网络借贷机构可能收敛至不同的均衡状态，通过制定适当的奖惩制度，降低地方政府的激励成本，削减网络借贷机构的良性退出费用，以及对良性退出的网络借贷机构采取适当的税收优惠，可以使地方政府与网络借贷机构收敛至“激励、良性退出”的最优均衡。
The Research on Benign Withdrawal Strategy of Chinese Online Lending Institutions——An Analysis Based on Evolutionary Game
ZHANG Cheng-hu LIU Xin WANG Qi
The authors of this paper build an evolutionary game model of local governments and online lending institutions to research how to realize the benign withdrawl of online lending institutions with the participation of local governments, and use the numerical simulation to analyze the dynamic evolution pathway and factors influencing the withdrawal of online lending institutions. The results of the paper show that, for different values of influencing factors, the local governments and online lending institutions may converge to different equilibrium states; by formulating appropriate reward and punishment systems, reducing the incentive costs of local government and the benign withdrawal fees of online lending institutions, implementing preferential tax measures for the institutions, the local government and the institutions can converge to the optimal balance (incentive, benign withdrawal).
中美金融市场信息溢出效应检验
袁 薇 王培辉
本文采用Hong方法，以“8·11汇改”为界点，详细检验汇改前后中美股票市场、债券市场、汇率市场和货币市场间联动性，包括均值溢出、波动率溢出、极端风险溢出（上涨效应和下跌效应）等多层次互动关系。实证研究结果表明：中美金融市场间存在复杂关联和互动关系，既有线性关系也有非线性关系，主要表现为中美金融市场间极端风险溢出；汇改后中国汇率市场与美国金融市场联动性增强，但中美金融市场风险传导仍以美国金融市场为核心传导；中美金融市场联动具有阶段性变化特征。
Examination of Information Spillover Effect in Financial Markets of China and the US
YUAN Wei WANG Pei-hui
According to the Hong method, the authors of this paper examine how the linkages vary among the stock, bond, exchange and money markets before and after the 811 exchange rate reform, including the multilevel spillover effect of mean, volatility and extreme risk (upside effect and downside effect). The results show that the financial markets of China and the US are complexly related, both linear and non-linear, especially in the extreme risk spillover; the market linkage is stronger after the exchange rate reform, while the US markets remains to be the core of risk transmission; the linkage varies in different phases.
英国保险法中人身保险利益制度改革研究
于海纯 罗淑秀
英国于2018年发布了仅适用于人身保险的《保险利益法案》。该保险利益法案既包括对传统人身保险利益规则的重新审查，也涉及对未婚同居者、信托管理人、团体保险等保险利益的确认。此次英国保险法改革以人身保险利益为重点，在形式和内容上都进行了与时俱进的大胆创新，采取非穷尽式清单的模式可以保持人身保险利益原则的灵活性和相对稳定性。随着未来新型人身保险产品的开发，这一模式在人身保险领域仍适用保险利益原则的国家将具有一定优势，为其他国家提供了解决问题的可能路径。
A Study of the Reform of Life-Related Insurable Interest Principle in British Insurance Law
YU Hai-chun LUO Shu-xiu
The UK released the updated Insurable Interest Bill in 2018, which is only applicable to life-related insurance, to solicit opinions from the public. The Insurable Interest Bill not only includes the check of the traditional life insurable interest rules, but also confirms the rights of the cohabitant, trustee and administrator of a group insurance. The reform focuses on the life-related insurable interest, and makes bold innovations both in the form and content that keep pace with the times. In particular, the adoption of a non-exhaustive list can maintain both the flexibility and relative stability of the life-related insurable interest principle. With the development of new life insurance products in the future, this model will have certain advantages in countries where the principle is still applied in the field of life-related insurance, and provide other countries with a possible way to solve problems in the area.
“三明治夹心”一代的家庭抚养责任与人身保险需求
王宏扬 樊纲治
老龄化趋势加剧、二孩政策实施使“三明治夹心”一代将面临更沉重的家庭抚养责任。本文使用2013年CHFS数据，采用Probit和Tobit模型，发现老年赡养责任和少儿抚养责任会促进家庭“三明治夹心”一代的人身保险需求，并且对东部地区有户主身份的男性“三明治夹心”的人身保险需求促进作用更强。本文可以为中国保险行业的发展提供一定参考，同时也为政府制定应对人口转变的策略提供依据。
Family Support Responsibility and Personal InsuranceDemand of the Sandwich Generation
WANG Hong-yang FAN Gang-zhi
With the aging of population and implementation of the two-child policy, the family support burden is heavier for the sandwich generation. Using the Probit and Tobit models with 2013 CHFS data, the authors of this paper find that sandwich generation’s support responsibilities for the elderly and the young would increase their demand for personal insurance, and the demand is stronger among male heads of households in the eastern area. This paper could provide reference for the development of China’s insurance industry and population policy-making of the government.