双循环新发展格局：如何理解和构建 徐奇渊
定向降准政策的调控效果
——基于PSM-DID方法的实证分析 刘 琦 董 斌
央行口头沟通与人民币汇率预期
——基于事件分析法的研究 李艳丽 郭 蓉 孙钰雯
发行绿色债券与提升企业价值
——基于DID模型的中介效应检验 马亚明 胡春阳 刘鑫龙
结构性去杠杆对中国宏观经济的影响
——基于杠杆转移的视角 徐飘洋 王 博
后危机时代大型金融机构“生前遗嘱”问题研究 邹伟康 于海纯
非执行董事的公司治理效应研究
——股价崩盘风险的视角 胡 珺 潘 婧 陈志强 周林子
跨国并购与新兴市场跨国企业公司治理
——以中国沪深A股上市公司为例 徐慧琳 杨 望 王振山
双循环新发展格局：如何理解和构建
徐奇渊
中国的经济发展战略进行了与时俱进的调整，经历了“构建扩大内需长效机制”“供给侧结构性改革”“强大国内市场”“畅通国民经济循环”等探索，最终在新形势下形成了双循环的新发展思路。双循环的新发展格局从供求互动出发，同时又超出了简单的供求关系，贯穿、扩展到了生产、分配、流通、消费各个环节。就此意义而言，双循环的新发展格局与供给侧结构性改革有继承的关系，同时也有了更进一步的扩展和更重要的理论和现实意义。
New Development Pattern of Dual Circulation: How to Understand and Build
XU Qi-yuan
China’s economic development strategy has been adjusted with the times. It experienced the exploration of “building a long-term mechanism to expand domestic demand”, “implementing supply side structural reform”, “strengthening domestic market” and “smoothening national economic circulation”, and finally formed a new development idea of dual circulation under the new situation. The new development pattern of dual circulation starts from the interaction between supply and demand, and goes beyond the simple relationship between the two, running through and extending to all aspects of production, distribution, circulation and consumption. In this sense, it has an inheritance relationship with supply side structural reform, yet has further expansion and more important theoretical and practical significance.
定向降准政策的调控效果——基于PSM-DID方法的实证分析
刘 琦 董 斌
基于2010-2018年中国A股上市公司和新三板挂牌企业数据，采用PSM-DID模型定量考察定向降准政策对定向支持企业信贷可得性、融资成本和投资的影响，检验定向降准政策的实际效果。研究发现，考察期内，定向降准政策实施后，与非支持企业相比，定向支持企业的信贷可得性显著提高，实际融资成本显著降低，新增投资显著增加。进一步的异质性检验发现，定向降准政策的调控效果因企业产权性质和所在地区金融发展水平的不同而存在差异。
The Regulatory Effects of Targeted Cuts to the Reserve Requirement Ratio
——An Empirical Analysis Based on the PSM-DID Method
LIU Qi DONG Bin
Based on the data of China’s listed companies in A-share and NEEQ markets during 2010-2018, this paper uses PSM-DID model to examine the policy impacts of targeted cuts to the reserve requirement ratio on targeted enterprise’s credit availability, financing cost and investment, and tests the actual effects of the policy. The results show that during the study period, the target enterprises significantly benefit from the policy compared with non-target enterprises, having more available credits, lower financing costs and more investment. Further heterogeneity tests show that the regulatory effects vary for enterprise’s ownership and the financial development level of its location.
央行口头沟通与人民币汇率预期——基于事件分析法的研究
李艳丽 郭 蓉 孙钰雯
本文运用事件研究法，在方向、扭转和平滑三种成功判定标准下，考虑央行外汇市场实际干预的影响，研究2005-2018年央行口头沟通对人民币汇率预期的影响。结果显示，央行口头沟通对汇率预期的影响在平滑标准下最有效，在扭转标准下的有效性最低；央行在外汇市场的实际干预方向与央行口头沟通意图一致时，央行沟通的成功率在方向和扭转标准下明显提高，但是在平滑标准下出现下降；央行口头沟通对汇率预期影响的效用会随着时间的延长而下降。
Central Bank’s Oral Communication and RMB Exchange Rate Expectation
——An Analysis Based on the Event Study Method
LI Yan-li GUO Rong SUN Yu-wen
The authors of this paper study the impact of central bank’s oral communication on RMB exchange rate expectation during 2005-2018, considering central bank’s actual intervention in the foreign exchange market and using the event study method and the criteria of direction, reversal and smoothing. The results show that central bank’s oral communication is most effective under the smoothing criterion and least effective under the reversal criterion; when central bank’s actual intervention is consistent with its oral communication in the foreign exchange market, the success rate of central bank’s communication increases significantly under the direction and reversal criteria, but decreases under the smoothing criterion; the utility of central bank’s oral communication decreases with time.
发行绿色债券与提升企业价值——基于DID模型的中介效应检验
马亚明 胡春阳 刘鑫龙
为研究绿色债券发行对发行主体企业价值的影响，本文选取2015-2018年1 775家上市非金融企业的季度面板数据，基于双重差分模型进行实证分析，得出主要结论为：第一，发行绿色债券可以显著提升企业价值，并且具有动态持续性；第二，对于开展第三方认证的企业、国有企业、制造业和电力行业企业以及西部地区企业，发行绿色债券的价值提升效应更加显著；第三，企业发行绿色债券可以通过提升个股投资者情绪和降低融资成本的途径提高自身价值，而企业税收的中介效应不显著。
Green Bond Issuance and Corporate Value Promotion
——Based on the Mediation Effect Test of DID Model
MA Ya-ming HU Chun-yang LIU Xin-long
Based on the quarterly panel data of 1 775 non-financial listed enterprises during 2015-2018, this paper empirically studies the impact of green bond issuance on the corporate value of the issuer with the difference-in-difference model. The results show that: (1) the issuance of green bonds increases the corporate value significantly, with dynamic sustainability; (2) the increasing effect is more significant in enterprises with third-party certification, state-owned enterprises, enterprises in manufacture and electricity, and enterprises in the western region; (3) the increasing effects are significant through inspiring investor sentiment and reducing financing costs, but the mediation effect of taxation is not significant.
结构性去杠杆对中国宏观经济的影响——基于杠杆转移的视角
徐飘洋 王 博
本文通过构建TVP-VAR模型和DSGE模型，从杠杆转移的视角出发，对结构性去杠杆对中国宏观经济的影响及不同转杠杆政策之间的差异进行研究。研究结果表明：（1）紧缩国有企业信贷可以有效降低国有企业杠杆率，但也会导致经济下滑；（2）在紧缩国有企业信贷的同时，增加对民营企业的信贷，即杠杆转移，可以同时实现结构性去杠杆和稳增长；（3）从社会福利的角度来看，引导银行部门对国有企业和民营企业的风险预期比定向调整准备金率更优。
The Impact of Structural Deleveraging on China’s Macroeconomy
——from the Perspective of Leverage Shifting
XU Piao-yang WANG Bo
From the perspective of leverage shifting, the authors of this paper construct the TVP-VAR model and DSGE model to study the impact of structural deleveraging on China’s macroeconomy and the differences of various leverage shifting policies. The results show that: (1) credit crunch of state-owned enterprises could effectively decrease their leverage ratio but cause economic downturn as well; (2) leverage shifting, tightening the credit of state-owned enterprises and increasing the credit of private enterprises, could simultaneously achieve the structural deleveraging and stable economic growth; (3) in terms of social welfare, it is better to guide the banking sector’s risk expectation of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises than adjust the reserve ratio.
后危机时代大型金融机构“生前遗嘱”问题研究
邹伟康 于海纯
2008全球金融危机之后，各国金融监管部门与银行机构逐渐认识到为了有效预防金融危机的发生，防止大型金融机构破产对整个金融体系造成重大冲击，应针对金融机构特别是系统重要性金融机构可能面临的财务困难或濒临破产的情形，采取事前处置预案与相关计划准备，此即“生前遗嘱”。本文研究后金融危机时代美英等国政府针对大型金融机构处置预案制定的相关法律规范、原则及指引，剖析这些金融机构在其“生前遗嘱”中所设定的各类处置措施与方案，并探讨这一新的监管制度在操作过程中遇到的问题、挑战与趋势。
Living Will by Systemically Important Financial Institutions Ex Post the Global Financial Crisis
ZOU Wei-kang YU Hai-chun
Since the 2008 financial crisis, global financial regulators and banking institutions have realized the importance of an ex ante bankruptcy resolution plan, or a living will, of the large financial institutions, especially the systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs). The resolution plan for possible failures and difficulties could help mitigate adverse impacts on the overall financial system and prevent financial crises. This paper analyzes the legal acts, principles and guidance issued ex post the crisis by governments around the world, and explores the specific measures and strategies made by the SIFIs, and discusses the implementation challenges and difficulties.
非执行董事的公司治理效应研究——股价崩盘风险的视角
胡 珺 潘 婧 陈志强 周林子
本文选择2011-2016年中国上市公司为样本，从非执行董事的视角考察董事会独立性对公司股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现，非执行董事能够约束管理层的负面消息管理行为，预防公司股价崩盘风险。但是当公司管理层权力更大、股权集中度更高时，非执行董事在预防公司股价崩盘风险中的积极作用会相对降低。进一步研究发现，非执行董事与其他公司治理机制存在替代效应，表现为在没有实施管理层股权激励以及分析师关注程度更低的公司中，非执行董事对股价崩盘风险的预防效应更强。
Corporate Governance of Non-Executive Directors
——from the Perspective of Stock Price Collapse
HU Jun PAN Jing CHEN Zhi-qiang ZHOU Lin-zi
The authors of this paper select the sample of China’s listed companies during 2011-2016 to examine the impact of board independence on the risk of corporate stock price collapse from the perspective of non-executive directors. It is found that non-executive directors could constrain management’s control behavior of negative news and prevent the risk of stock price collapse. However, the role of non-executive directors is less active when the enterprise has more powerful management and greater equity concentration. Further studies show that, as a substitution of other corporate governance mechanisms, non-executive directors are more effective in risk prevention of stock price collapse in enterprises with no management equity incentives and less analyst attention.
跨国并购与新兴市场跨国企业公司治理
——以中国沪深A股上市公司为例
徐慧琳 杨 望 王振山
本文使用沪深A股上市公司在发达东道国的跨国并购样本，利用PSM+DID模型研究跨国并购对中国企业公司治理产生的影响。结果表明，跨国并购后中国企业的公司治理显著改善，具体表现为所有权、董事会和外部治理特征；当并购企业对目标企业进行部分并购，或者在投资者保护水平更优的东道国进行并购时，企业公司治理改善更显著。
Cross-Border M&A and the Multinational Corporate Governance in Emerging Market
——A Case Study of China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-Share Listed Companies
XU Hui-lin YANG Wang WANG Zhen-shan
The authors of this paper select the sample of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies with cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in developed host countries, and study its impact on the corporate governance of China’s enterprises using the PSM+DID model. The results show that the corporate governance is significantly improved after the cross-border M&As in terms of ownership, board of directors and external governance; the improvements are more significant if the acquiring firm makes a partial acquisition of the target firm or the host country has a higher level of investor protection.