央行数字货币体系构建对金融系统的影响 （巴曙松 姚舜达）
货币政策调整对企业投资的差异性效应
—— 理论分析与经验证据 （李 成 吕昊旻 王 婷）
银行承担社会责任对其竞争力的影响研究
—— 基于银行服务的“质”与“量”中介视角 （段军山 庄旭东）
中国货币政策传导变量的区域结构效应研究 （李文韬）
汇率与黄金价格的非对称传递效应
—— 来自全球八大黄金产消地的经验证据 （谢 攀 陈榆青 金 雨）
数字普惠金融对农村劳动力自我雇佣的影响 （张正平 黄帆帆）
经济不确定性指数与中国货币政策调控有效性 （贾德奎 TOH Moau Yong）
央行数字货币体系构建对金融系统的影响
巴曙松 姚舜达
本文基于货币演化逻辑以及公共选择理论的视角，论证了央行数字货币产生的必要性；从价值维度、技术维度、运营维度、应用维度的视角，论证了央行数字货币体系构建的充分性。央行数字货币体系构建过程中可能面临三个主要选择：计不计息、匿不匿名、跨不跨境。这三个选择对金融系统的影响体现为：现金、银行存款与央行数字货币的“三角平衡”问题，金融普惠原则下金融监管与用户隐私保护的“二元平衡”问题以及人民币国际化趋势下的全球支付“一点对接”问题。
Influence of Construction of Central Bank Digital Currency System on Financial System
BA Shu-song YAO Shun-da
Based on the perspective of currency evolution logic and public choice theory, this paper demonstrates the necessity of the emergence of central bank digital currency (CBDC); from the perspective of four dimensions, value, technology, operation and application, it demonstrates the adequacy of the construction of CBDC system. In the process of building a CBDC system, the central bank may face three main choices: whether or not interest-bearing, anonymous, and whether or not need cross-border arrangement. The impact of these three choices on the financial system is reflected in the “triangle balance” between cash, bank deposits and the central banks digital currency, the“binary balance” between financial supervision and user privacy protection based on the principle of financial inclusion, and the“one point docking” problem of global payment in the trend of RMB internationalization.
货币政策调整对企业投资的差异性效应
——理论分析与经验证据
李 成 吕昊旻 王 婷
基于国有与非国有企业并存的二元所有制结构背景，本文分析宽松货币政策对企业投资偏离的总量经济效应与所有制差异效应，运用2008年至2019年中国A股上市公司数据进行实证检验，结果表明：（1）当企业面临较高的投资机会时，宽松货币政策通过流动性效应降低了企业外部融资约束，对投资不足产生显著抑制效应；（2）宽松货币政策对不同所有制企业投资偏离存在差异性效应，信贷扩张导致国有企业过度投资，受银行信贷配给和国有投资挤出影响，非国有企业投资不足加剧。
The Differential Effects of Monetary Policy Adjustment on Enterprise Investment
——Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence
LI Cheng LV Hao-min WANG Ting
Based on the dual ownership structure of the coexistence of state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises, the authors of this paper analyze the aggregate economic effect and the ownership-difference effect of loose monetary policy on the deviation of enterprise investment, and use the data of China’s A-share listed companies during 2008-2019 to test the effects empirically. The results show that, (1) when the enterprises have great investment opportunities, the loose monetary policy reduces the external financing constraints of enterprises through liquidity effect, and has a significant inhibitory effect on the insufficient investment of enterprises; (2) to the enterprises with different ownership system, the effect of loose monetary policy on investment deviation varies, and the credit expansion results in the overinvestment and overcapacity of SOEs, and meanwhile the insufficient investment of non-SOEs.
银行承担社会责任对其竞争力的影响研究
——基于银行服务的“质”与“量”中介视角
段军山 庄旭东
本文基于2010-2018年中国16家上市银行面板数据，探讨银行承担社会责任对其竞争力的影响。研究发现，大型银行和中小型银行承担社会责任均能提高自身竞争力，并且正效应存在一定的持续性；大型银行承担社会责任对银行竞争力的正效应更强；银行承担社会责任能够通过金融创新和信贷供给两条渠道，改善银行服务的“质”与“量”，最终促进竞争力提升。
Research on the Impact of Bank’s Social Responsibility on Competitiveness
——Based on the Intermediary Perspective of the “Quality” and “Quantity” of Bank Service
DUAN Jun-shan ZHUANG Xu-dong
Based on the panel data of 16 listed banks in China during 2010-2018, this paper analyzes the impact of bank’s social responsibility on the competitiveness. It’s found that both large banks and small & medium-sized banks can improve their own competitiveness by taking social responsibility, and the positive effect shows a continuity to a certain degree; the positive effect of large banks’ social responsibility on the competitiveness is stronger; social responsibility can improve the “quality” and “quantity” of bank services through two channels: financial innovation and credit supply, and will ultimately improve banks’ competitiveness.
中国货币政策传导变量的区域结构效应研究
李文韬
本文基于2007-2019年的数据实证分析利率、信贷、汇率、股票市场和房地产市场等货币政策传导变量对中国八大综合经济区经济增长和物价的影响。研究发现，中国货币政策传导存在明显的区域非对称效应；银行信贷和利率渠道对各区域经济增长和物价影响的方向基本一致，影响幅度存在较大差异；汇率对各区域经济增长、物价影响的方向和幅度均存在非对称性；股票市场价格和房地产价格除对个别区域经济增长率和物价有一定影响外，对大部分地区影响幅度不大，但区域非对称效应比较明显。
Research on the Regional Structure Effect of Transmission Variables of China’s Monetary Policy
LI Wen-tao
Based on the data during 2007-2019, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of monetary policy transmission variables, such as interest rate, credit, exchange rate, stock market, and real estate market, on the economic growth and prices of China’s eight comprehensive economic zones. It’s found that, China’s monetary policy transmission has significant regional asymmetric effect; the channels of bank credit and interest rate basically have the same direction of impact on economic growth and prices in various regions, and the impact degree is quite different; both the direction and the degree of the impacts of exchange rate on regional economic growth and price are asymmetry; the prices of stock market and real estate have a certain impact on the economic growth rate and price of some regions, but have no great impact in most regions, and the regional asymmetry effect is significant.
汇率与黄金价格的非对称传递效应
——来自全球八大黄金产消地的经验证据
谢 攀 陈榆青 金 雨
本文构建NARDL模型研究全球八大黄金产消地1990-2019年汇率波动与金价变动的联系。结果表明，长期看，主要黄金消费地印度、美国、土耳其金价对汇率下跌的正响应大于对汇率上升的负响应；主要黄金生产地澳大利亚金价对汇率波动的负向传递效应为正向传递的1.3倍；短期内，黄金供需弹性分化加剧主要产消地之间金价与汇率波动的异质性，欧元汇率波动对金价的传递以及中国、俄罗斯金价变动对汇率的传递均呈现显著非对称性。主要消费地应针对黄金对冲本币贬值时效与程度的差异适时优化外汇储备结构，主要产金地则须筑牢对金价波动引致汇率风险的常态化防控体系。
Asymmetric Transmission Effect Between Exchange Rate and Gold Price
——Empirical Evidence from Eight Gold Producing and Consuming Regions
XIE Pan CHEN Yu-qing JIN Yu
This paper constructs a NARDL model to study the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and gold price changes in the global eight gold producing and consuming regions during 1990-2019. The results show that, in the long run, the positive response of gold prices to the fall of exchange rate is greater than the negative response to the rise of exchange rate in the main gold consumption regions of India, the United States and Turkey; in the main gold producing region of Australia, the negative transmission effect of gold price on exchange rate is 1.3 times of the positive effect; in the short run, the differentiation of gold supply and demand elasticity intensifies the heterogeneity of gold price and exchange rate fluctuation between main production and consumption regions. The transmission of euro exchange rate fluctuation to gold price and the transmission of China and Russia gold price fluctuation to exchange rate are significantly asymmetric. The main consumption regions should optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves according to the difference of time and degree of gold hedging against the devaluation of local currency, and the main gold producing regions should build a normalized prevention and control system against the exchange rate risk caused by the fluctuation of gold price.
数字普惠金融对农村劳动力自我雇佣的影响
张正平 黄帆帆
基于北京大学数字普惠金融指数和中山大学中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据库，本文使用Probit模型实证检验数字普惠金融发展对农村劳动力自我雇佣的影响。结果表明：数字普惠金融发展水平及其各个维度对农村劳动力自我雇佣均有显著的正向作用；相比成为雇主，数字普惠金融对农村劳动力成为个体经营者有更显著的正向作用；数字普惠金融对不发达地区、教育程度较低、35岁以上农村劳动力的自我雇佣活动有更强的促进作用；数字普惠金融的发展通过降低融资成本提升农村劳动力的自我雇佣水平。
Influence of Digital Inclusive Finance on Self Employment of Rural Labor Force
ZHANG Zheng-ping HUANG Fan-fan
Based on Peking University Digital Financial Inclusion Index of China (PKU-DFIIC) and Sun Yat-sen University China Labor Dynamic Survey (CLDS) database, this paper uses Probit model to empirically analyze the impact of digital inclusive finance development on self employment of rural labor force. The results show that the development of digital inclusive finance and its various dimensions have a significant positive effect on the self employment of rural labor force; compared with the rural labor force becoming an employer, digital inclusive finance has a more significant positive effect on being a self-employed person; digital inclusive finance has a stronger effect on the self employment of rural labor force in underdeveloped areas, with low education level and over 35 years old. The development of digital inclusive finance improves the self employment level of rural labor by reducing financing costs.
经济不确定性指数与中国货币政策调控有效性
贾德奎 TOH Moau Yong
本文利用主流财经报纸上与经济不确定性相关的文章报道频度，同时对《中国货币政策执行报告》进行文本分析和关键词搜索，分别构建经济不确定性指数用于度量中国经济运行中的风险或不确定性。基于经济不确定性指数的实证研究结果表明，经济不确定性会显著降低中国货币政策调控的有效性，尤其在高经济不确定性状态下，数量型和价格型货币政策工具对于经济产出和价格水平的调控有效性都会明显下降。
Economic Uncertainty Index and Effectiveness of China’s Monetary Policy Regulation
JIA De-kui TOH Moau Yong
Based on the reporting frequency of articles related to economic uncertainty in mainstream financial newspapers as well as text analysis and keyword search on China’s Monetary Policy Implementation Report, this paper constructs economic uncertainty index to measure the risk or uncertainty in China’s economic operation. The empirical research results based on the economic uncertainty index show that economic uncertainty will significantly reduce the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy regulation, especially in the high economic uncertainty state, the regulative effectiveness of both quantitative monetary policy tools and price monetary policy instruments on the output and price level will significantly decline.