美元的未来 （张礼卿）
绿色信贷政策的绿色效果及影响机制
—— 基于中国上市公司绿色专利数据的证据 （曹廷求 张翠燕 杨 雪）
资产证券化与商业银行盈利能力研究
—— 来自中国银行业的经验证据 （安丛梅 张 虹 马 强）
中国家庭借贷需求与借贷渠道的偏好分析
—— 基于亲缘关系的视角 （饶育蕾 周湾湾 陈地强）
对外直接投资、科技创新与货币国际化 （杨丹丹 沈 悦）
劳资财务分配与企业创新 （钟 腾 饶瑶瑶 袁 方）
混合参股与企业效率
—— 基于非国有资本参股国有企业的实证研究 （王 倩 郝千慧 吴多文）
均衡汇率估算方法与人民币汇率话语权 （何 昌）
美元的未来
张礼卿
美国经济增长的持续低迷现象短期内难以改变。疫情冲击下美国的超级宽松财政货币政策加大了美国金融体系的潜在不稳定性，将导致美元在未来一个时期持续疲软。在美联储开始加息之前，美元将继续停留在2017年开始的弱势区域，不太可能出现较强的持续反弹。国际社会正在反思现行国际货币体系缺陷并进行改革，在可以预见的未来，最可能的情形是美元、欧元和人民币形成三足鼎立的格局，其中美元占40%，人民币和欧元分别占20%。
The Future of US Dollar
ZHANG Li-qing
The continued downturn in US economic growth will not change in the short term. The US ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policy owing to the impact of the epidemic has increased the potential instability of the US financial system, which will cause the US dollar to continue to weaken in the coming period. Before the Fed starts to raise interest rates, the US dollar will continue to stay in the weak region that began in 2017, and a strong sustained rebound is unlikely. The international community is reflecting on the shortcomings of the current international monetary system and carrying out reforms. In the foreseeable future, the most likely scenario is that the US dollar, the Euro, and the RMB form a tripartite pattern, with the US dollar accounting for 40%, the RMB and Euro accounting each for 20%.
绿色信贷政策的绿色效果及影响机制
——基于中国上市公司绿色专利数据的证据
曹廷求 张翠燕 杨 雪
本文以2012年颁布的《绿色信贷指引》为例构造准自然实验，采用双重差分法检验了《绿色信贷指引》的实施对企业绿色创新活动的影响。研究发现：相较非重污染企业，绿色信贷政策的实施整体上抑制了重污染企业的绿色创新，从政策的动态效应上看抑制作用逐渐减弱，该政策促进了积极履行社会责任的重污染企业进行绿色转型。机制检验表明绿色信贷政策通过抑制企业的信贷融资，尤其是长期借款，对上市公司绿色创新行为产生负向影响，且该影响主要集中在申请绿色发明专利、非国有以及所在地区金融发展程度低的企业中。
Green Effect and Influence Mechanism of Green Credit Policy
——Based on the Evidences of Green Patent Data of Chinese Listed Companies
CAO Ting-qiu ZHANG Cui-yan YANG Xue
Based on the Green Credit Guidelines promulgated in 2012, this paper constructs a quasi-natural experiment, and uses the double difference method to examine the impact of implementation of Green Credit Guidelines on the green innovation activities of enterprises. It’s found that, compared with non-heavily polluting enterprises, the implementation of green credit policy has inhibited the green innovation of heavily-polluting enterprises as a whole, and the restraining effect was gradually weakened from the perspective of dynamic effect of the policy; the policy has promoted the green transformation of heavily-polluting enterprises that actively fulfill their social responsibilities. The mechanism test shows that green credit policy has a negative impact on the green innovation behavior of listed companies by inhibiting the credit financing of enterprises, especially the long-term loans, and the impact is mainly concentrated on the enterprises that apply for green invention patents, non-state-owned enterprises, or enterprises in regions with low level of financial development.
资产证券化与商业银行盈利能力研究
——来自中国银行业的经验证据
安丛梅 张 虹 马 强
本文以2012-2019年45家商业银行半年报数据为样本，实证考察资产证券化对商业银行盈利能力的影响。研究发现：资产证券化会显著提升商业银行盈利能力，且在不同竞争压力银行中存在异质性影响。从微观视角出发，资产证券化是通过提升流动性水平、杠杆水平及非利息收入影响盈利能力。进一步研究发现，在实施利率市场化政策条件下，资产证券化将明显提升银行盈利能力，这种正面影响在创新能力强的银行中更为显著。
A Research on Asset Securitization and Profitability of Commercial Banks
——Empirical Evidence from China’s Banking Sector
AN Cong-mei ZHANG Hong MA Qiang
This paper uses the semi-annual report data of 45 commercial banks during 2012-2019 as samples to empirically examine the impact of asset securitization on the profitability of commercial banks. It’s found that asset securitization significantly improves the profitability of commercial banks, and there are heterogeneous effects in banks with different competitive pressure. From a micro perspective, asset securitization influences the profitability by increasing the levels of liquidity, leverage and non-interest income. The further research shows that, under the conditions of the implementation of interest rate liberalization, the asset securitization will significantly improve the profitability of banks, and the positive impact is more significant in banks with strong innovation capabilities.
中国家庭借贷需求与借贷渠道的偏好分析
——基于亲缘关系的视角
饶育蕾 周湾湾 陈地强
基于中国家庭金融调查数据（CHFS），本文实证分析亲缘关系对中国居民家庭借贷需求与借贷渠道偏好的影响。研究表明，以户主直系兄弟姐妹数量为代理变量的亲缘关系对家庭借贷需求有显著的正向影响；亲缘关系强（即兄弟姐妹个数多）的家庭更倾向于关系型借贷；亲缘关系弱的家庭更倾向于银行等机构为主的非关系型借贷；亲缘关系强的家庭因教育的摊薄效应和相对更低的学历水平，难取得非关系型借贷优势，从而产生更多关系型借贷。
A Study of Chinese Household Financing Demand and Financing Channel Preference
——From Perspective of Kinship
RAO Yu-lei ZHOU Wan-wan CHEN Di-qiang
Based on the data from China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this paper empirically analyzes the influence of kinship on Chinese households’ financing demand and financing channel preference. It is found that the kinship, whose proxy variable is the number of direct siblings, has a significant positive impact on Chinese households’ financing demand; households with strong kinship (i.e. more siblings) tend to borrow money through relationship lending; households with weak kinship tend to rely on non-relationship lending dominated by institutions like banks; due to the dilution effect of education and relatively lower education level, households with strong kinship can hardly obtain the advantage of non-relationship lending, which leads to more relationship lending.
对外直接投资、科技创新与货币国际化
杨丹丹 沈 悦
本文运用包含对外直接投资规模和科技水平的货币搜寻模型，基于美元、英镑等世界主要货币1975-2017年的数据，分析对外直接投资对货币国际化的影响。结果显示，在美元主导全球对外直接投资计价货币的国际体系中，一国实施对外直接投资对货币国际化的直接影响并不明显；科技水平提升能够增加一国在对外直接投资计价货币谈判中的话语权，有利于对外直接投资发挥提高货币国际化程度的作用；对外直接投资会增强经济实力和贸易规模对货币国际化的促进作用，但与国内金融发展水平之间不存在正向交互影响。
FDI, Technological Innovation and Currency Internationalization
YANG Dan-dan SHEN Yue
Authors of this paper use Search Models of Money which includes the scale of foreign direct investment (FDI) and scientific and technological level to analyze the impact of FDI on currency internationalization, based on the data of the world’s major currencies such as the US dollar and the British pound during 1975-2017. The results show that in the international system in which the US dollar dominates the global FDI valuation currency, the direct impact of a country’s FDI on currency internationalization is not significant; the improvement in science and technology can increase a country’s voice in the negotiation of FDI valuation currency, which is conducive for FDI to play a role in improving currency internationalization; FDI will enhance the promoting impact of economic strength and trade scale on currency internationalization, but there is no positive interaction between FDI and domestic financial development.
劳资财务分配与企业创新
钟 腾 饶瑶瑶 袁 方
本文以2007-2017年中国A股上市公司为样本，探究劳资财务分配对企业创新的影响，实证分析表明，劳动收入份额上升对企业创新存在先促进后阻碍的倒U形影响。为了缓解内生性，本文采用最低工资标准为工具变量，结论仍一致。此外，本文还考察了企业产权属性、融资约束、行业周期等异质性影响，发现非国有产权、高融资约束、衰退期行业企业更容易受到劳动收入份额上升对企业创新的阻碍作用。
Labor-Capital Financial Distribution and Enterprise Innovation
ZHONG Teng RAO Yao-yao YUAN Fang
This paper uses the Chinese A-share listed companies during 2007-2017 as samples to analyze the impact of labor-capital financial distribution on enterprise innovation. The empirical analysis shows that rising labor income share has an inverted U-shaped impact, promoting first and hindering later, on enterprise innovation. In order to reduce the endogeneity, the paper adopts the minimum wage standard as an instrumental variable, and the conclusion is still consistent. In addition, the paper examines the heterogeneous effects of property rights, financing constraints and industry cycles, and it’s found that the innovation of non-state-owned, high financing-constraint, or declining-industry enterprises is more likely to be hindered by rising labor income share.
混合参股与企业效率
——基于非国有资本参股国有企业的实证研究
王 倩 郝千慧 吴多文
本文运用2004-2017年非金融国有上市公司数据，分析非国有股东参股国有企业能否提高企业效率。结果表明，随着非国有股东持股量的增加，企业全要素生产率呈上升趋势；分析其影响机制发现，非国有股东派任董监高、薪酬差距及政策性负担这三条中介机制均显著成立。而企业混合主体的多元化和制衡度会导致企业效率降低，警示监管机构和企业不能只顾追求混合主体多元化及股权制衡而忽视异质性股东可能争夺企业控制权的潜在危机。
Mixed Equity Participation and Enterprise Efficiency
——An Empirical Study of Non-State Owned Capital’s Participation in SOEs
WANG Qian HAO Qian-hui WU Duo-wen
This paper uses the data of non-financial state-owned listed companies during 2004-2017 to analyze whether non-state-owned shareholders can improve the efficiency of state-owned enterprises. The results show that with the increase of non-state-owned shareholders, the total factor productivity of enterprises is on the rise. By analyzing the influence mechanism, it is found that the three intermediary mechanisms of non-state-owned shareholders being appointed directors and supervisors, salary gap and policy burden are significantly established. However, the diversification and balance degree of the mixed entities will lead to the decrease of the enterprise efficiency, which reminds the regulators and enterprises that they should not only pursue the diversification and equity balance of the mixed entities, but ignore the potential crisis of heterogeneous shareholders competing for the control right of the enterprise.
均衡汇率估算方法与人民币汇率话语权
何 昌
本文对边界商品的相对劳动生产率进行处理，形成三种不同的汇率估算方法，即人均GDP法、地区人均GDP替代法以及收入差值法。针对英国《经济学家》编制的“巨无霸指数”，利用收入差值法估算了基于人民币汇率的修正的“巨无霸指数”，结果表明人民币汇率是被高估了，但是高估的程度在持续下降。这一研究结果将为人民币汇率获得话语权提供支持。
The Method of Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rate and the
Discourse Power of RMB Exchange Rate
HE Chang
By studying the relative labor productivity of border commodities, this paper proposes three different methods of exchange rate estimation, namely, GDP per capita method, regional GDP per capita substitution method and income difference method. Like the “Big Mac index” compiled by The Economist, this paper estimates the revised “Big Mac index” based on the RMB exchange rate by using the income difference method. The results show that the RMB exchange rate is overvalued, but the degree of overvaluation continues to decline. This result will provide support for RMB exchange rate to gain the discourse power.