新发展阶段、新发展理念与新发展格局 （余淼杰）
绿色信贷政策与企业过度投资 （宁金辉 苑泽明 王晓祺）
绿色金融市场体系：理论依据、现状和要素扩展 （李建涛 梅德文）
分部门信贷对经济增长的门槛效应研究 （唐红梅 赵 军）
城市商业银行地域多元化与信用风险 （王礼月 杨柳勇）
资本流动与汇率失衡
—— 基于跨国经验的实证分析 （陈中飞 范春嫦 李珂欣 李佳阳）
诚信纳税与企业商业信用融资
—— 来自中国纳税信用A级企业的经验证据 （张 勇）
产融结合战略与企业现金持有水平
—— 基于企业持股非上市金融机构的经验证据 （曾春华 闫 明）
新发展阶段、新发展理念与新发展格局
余淼杰
在当前国内外环境下，中国经济发展路径可归结为“三新”：立足新发展阶段，贯彻新发展理念，构建新发展格局。立足新发展阶段体现为实现高质量发展，包括产品附加值、产品质量、全要素生产率的提升、产业升级和集聚，以及三次产业比重调整。贯彻新发展理念须从创新、绿色、协调、共享和开放五个方面入手。构建新发展格局的关键是通过内外循环的双管齐下，最终实现以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互发展的格局。
New Development Stage, New Development Concept and New Development Pattern
YU Miao-jie
In the current domestic and international environment, China’s economic development path can be summed up as "three new": take the new stage as the foothold, implement the new development concept, and build a new development pattern. Taking the new stage as the foothold is reflected in the realization of high-quality development, including the improvement in product added value, product quality, total factor productivity, industrial upgrading and agglomeration, as well as the adjustment to the proportion of the three industries. To carry out the new development concept, we should start with innovation, green development, coordination, sharing and opening up. The key to build a new development pattern is to realize the mutual development of domestic and international circulation, with domestic circulation as the main body.
绿色信贷政策与企业过度投资
宁金辉 苑泽明 王晓祺
本文从企业投资的角度考察绿色信贷政策的实施效果，利用双重差分模型检验绿色信贷政策对重污染企业过度投资的影响及其作用机理。研究发现：绿色信贷政策显著抑制重污染企业过度投资；相对于非国有企业、高环境规制地区企业，绿色信贷对企业过度投资的抑制效应在国有企业、低环境规制地区企业更为显著。作用机理检验表明：绿色信贷通过缓解代理问题影响企业过度投资。绿色信贷政策对企业过度投资的抑制作用呈递增的时间趋势。
Green Credit Policy and Enterprise Over-Investment
NING Jin-hui YUAN Ze-ming WANG Xiao-qi
This paper examines the effect of green credit policy from the perspective of enterprise investment, and uses the DID model to examine the impact of green credit policy on over-investment in heavily-polluting enterprises and the mechanism. It’s found that the green credit policy significantly restrained over-investment in heavily polluting enterprises; compared to non-state-owned enterprises and enterprises in areas with highly-strict environmental regulation, the restraining effect of green credit on enterprises’ over-investment is more significant in state-owned enterprises and enterprises in low-strict environmental regulation areas. The mechanism test shows that the green credit affects the enterprises’ over-investment by alleviating agency problem. The further research indicates that the inhibitory effect of green credit policy on enterprises’ over-investment shows an increasing-trend with time.
绿色金融市场体系：理论依据、现状和要素扩展
李建涛 梅德文
哈特威克法则主要研究资源约束条件下资本配置的规律，其通过建立资本与自然资源的相互关系，为绿色金融建立了可遵循的一般理论依据。现有绿色金融体系囿于传统金融市场的局限性，忽略了与新型要素市场的联动，未能有效满足绿色产业侧的多样化需求。运用哈特威克法则从市场主体的可持续发展职责、市场要素多样性以及市场多层次等方面对现有绿色金融市场体系进行多维度扩展，在此基础上实施分类推进，有利于完善市场功能，实现绿色金融可持续发展。
Green Financial Market System: Theoretical Basis, Status Quo and Expansion of Elements
LI Jian-tao MEI De-wen
Hartwick’s rule mainly researches the law of capital allocation under resource constraints. It establishes a general theoretical basis for green finance by establishing the relationship between capital and natural resources. Due to the limitations of traditional financial market, the existing green financial system ignores the linkage with new element market, and fails to effectively meet the diversified needs of green industry. It helps improve market function and achieve sustainable development of green finance to apply Hartwick’s rule to expand the existing green financial market system in multiple dimensions from the perspectives of market entity’s sustainable development responsibilities, market element diversity and market multi-levels and further implement classified promotion.
分部门信贷对经济增长的门槛效应研究
唐红梅 赵 军
杠杆率取决于信贷和GDP的相对增速，本文从增速这一“流量”视角考察分部门信贷对经济增长的作用，并以投资贡献率、人均消费增长、人均资本存量增长、贸易水平、工业化水平和非金融杠杆率为门槛变量，探究分部门信贷对经济增长作用的促进因素和抑制因素。研究发现信贷增速对经济增长具有促进作用，私人非金融信贷是顺周期的，政府部门信贷则具有逆周期特征。私人非金融信贷的促进因素是人均消费和人均资本存量的增长，政府部门信贷的促进因素是投资贡献率、人均消费增长和工业化水平，共同的抑制因素是非金融杠杆率。
A Study of Threshold Effect of Sector Credit on Economic Growth
TANG Hong-mei ZHAO Jun
Leverage ratio depends on the relative growth rate of credit and GDP. From the perspective of growth rate, which belongs to the category of flow index, this paper examines the effect of sector credit on economic growth. By taking investment contribution rate, per capita consumption growth, per capita capital stock growth, trade level, industrialization level and non-financial leverage ratio as threshold variables, this paper further explores the promoting and restraining factors of sector credit on economic growth. It is found that credit growth has a positive effect on economic growth, private non-financial credit is pro cyclical, while government sector credit is counter cyclical. The promoting factors of private non-financial credit are the growth of per capita consumption and per capita capital stock. The promoting factors of government credit are investment contribution rate, per capita consumption growth and industrialization level. The common restraining factor is non-financial leverage.
城市商业银行地域多元化与信用风险
王礼月 杨柳勇
本文基于2007-2018年中国城市商业银行的非平衡面板数据，采用系统GMM两步法实证分析城市商业银行地域多元化经营对信用风险水平的影响。研究结果表明：城市商业银行的地域多元化经营会加剧银行的信用风险，对资产规模较小以及非上市的城市商业银行影响更大；从地域角度来看，对西部地区和北方地区城市商业银行的影响更显著。通过机制检验，发现地域多元化会弱化银行的盈利能力，进而影响信用风险水平。
Geographic Diversification and Credit Risk of City Commercial Banks
WANG Li-yue YANG Liu-yong
Based on the unbalanced panel data of China’s city commercial banks during 2007-2018, this paper uses Two-step System GMM to empirically analyze the impact of geographic diversification operation on the credit risk level in city commercial banks. The results show that the geographic diversification of city commercial banks will raise the credit risk, and the impact is even greater on small-asset and non-listed city commercial banks; regionally, the impact is more significant on city commercial banks in western and northern areas. The mechanism test shows that geographic diversification will dilute the profitability of banks, and affect the level of credit risk.
资本流动与汇率失衡
——基于跨国经验的实证分析
陈中飞 范春嫦 李珂欣 李佳阳
基于EQCHANGE汇率失衡数据库，本文采用双向固定效应面板模型分析1995-2015年间全球77个国家净资本流动对汇率失衡程度的影响。研究发现：净资本流入影响汇率失衡程度，即在汇率低估时，净资本流入有利于汇率回归其均衡水平，在汇率高估时，净资本流入反而会增加汇率失衡；子项目资本净流动对汇率水平的影响不尽相同；汇率制度弹性越大，越有利于资本流动调节汇率水平；资本流入管制的调节效果比流出管制更佳。
Capital Flow and Exchange Rate Imbalance
——An Empirical Analysis Based on Cross-Country Experience
CHEN Zhong-fei FAN Chun-chang LI Ke-xin LI Jia-yang
Based on the exchange rate imbalance data of EQCHANGE, this paper uses a two-way fixed-effect panel model to analyze the impact of net capital flow in 77 countries in the world on the degree of exchange rate imbalance during 1995-2015. It’s found that, the net capital inflow impacts the degree of exchange rate imbalance, which means that the net capital inflow helps the exchange rate to return to its equilibrium level when the exchange rate is undervalued, and to increase exchange rate imbalance when the exchange rate is overvalued; the impacts of the net capital flow of sub-items on exchange rate vary; the more flexible the exchange rate system, the more conducive it is for capital flow to adjust the exchange rate level; the adjustment effect of capital inflow control is better than that of outflow control.
诚信纳税与企业商业信用融资
——来自中国纳税信用A级企业的经验证据
张 勇
本文通过Python爬取和人工查询方式收集2014-2016年被评为纳税信用A级的上市公司数据，研究诚信纳税（获评纳税信用A级）是否有助于企业获得更多商业信用。研究发现，诚信纳税会显著提升企业的商业信用融资水平，且与企业市场地位、地区诚信环境及法制环境存在替代效应，即对于市场地位越低、所处地区诚信和法制环境越差的企业，诚信纳税促进融资的作用越显著。
Honest Tax Paying and Enterprise Commercial Credit Financing
——Empirical Evidences of Tax-Paying Credit A-level Enterprises in China
ZHANG Yong
The author of this paper collects the data of listed enterprises rated as tax-paying credit A-level during 2014-2016 through Python crawling and manual query methods, and investigates whether honestly paying tax(evaluated as tax-paying credit A-level) helps enterprises to obtain more business credit. It’s found that honestly paying tax will significantly improve the business credit financing level of enterprises, and there is a substitution effect with the market position of enterprise, the regional honesty environment and the legal environment, which means that the lower the market position, the worse the honesty and legal environment of the region, the more significant the effect of honestly paying tax to promote financing is.
产融结合战略与企业现金持有水平
——基于企业持股非上市金融机构的经验证据
曾春华 闫 明
本文基于中国A股上市公司2007-2018年数据，从融资约束和代理冲突两条路径考察产融结合对现金持有水平的影响及作用路径。研究发现：进行产融结合的公司现金持有水平更低；产融结合对现金持有水平的负向作用在民营企业中和经济政策不确定性更大的环境中更加显著；利用现金—现金流敏感性模型检验，发现产融结合降低企业现金—现金流敏感性，这些都验证产融结合主要通过融资约束路径影响企业现金持有行为。
Strategy of Finance-Industry Integration and Enterprises’ Cash Holding Level
——Based on the Empirical Evidence of Enterprise Share-Holding of Non-Listed Financial Institutions
ZENG Chun-hua YAN Ming
Based on the data of China’s A-share listed companies during 2007-2018, this paper examines the impact of enterprises’ strategy of industry-finance integration on their cash holding level from two dimensions, financing restriction and agency conflict. The results show that the level of cash holding is lower for enterprises which carry out the strategy of industry-finance integration; the negative effect of industry-finance integration on the cash holding level is more significant in private enterprises and in the environment with greater-uncertainty of economic policy; the cash-cash flow sensitivity model test shows that the industry-finance integration reduces the cash flow sensitivity of cash. All these findings verify that the industry-finance integration affects the cash holding behavior mainly through financing restriction channel.