中国未来创新发展的优势与挑战 （林毅夫）
中期借贷便利工具对国债利率期限结构的影响
—— 基于主成分分析和VEC模型的实证检验 （邢天才 王再丰）
高铁PPP项目与商业银行风险
—— 影响机理和博弈分析 （谭克虎 杨 荇 王 永）
大气污染与贷款质量
—— 理论解读与实证检验 （陈小辉 张红伟 吴永超）
企业金融化与债务融资成本
—— 来自中国A股上市公司的证据 （白雪莲 贺 萌 张俊瑞）
金融结构与投资资本供给结构的非对称机制 （孙彦林 吴业强 孙 烨）
地方政府专项债券拉动基础设施投资的效应 （龙小燕 陈 旭 黄亦炫）
新冠疫情对中国股票市场的影响
—— 基于事件研究法的研究 （徐 宏 蒲红霞）
中国未来创新发展的优势与挑战
林毅夫
从后来者优势和新产业革命提供的机会来看，我们应该对中国未来的发展充满信心。同时，中国在发展过程中也面临挑战。第一个挑战是人口老龄化。但中国的人口老龄化问题不会导致中国经济增长像发达国家那样降到仅有2%左右的水平。第二个挑战是中美摩擦和竞争。美国真正能“卡中国脖子”的技术非常少，只有美国才有的少数技术，我们只要下定决心一定能取得突破。第三个挑战是碳达峰、碳中和等发展目标。传统企业把传统能源转换成新能源，企业成本会高一些，但影响是双方面的，有挑战，也有巨大的机会。
Advantages and Challenges of China’s Future Innovation and Development
LIN Yi-fu
Judging from the advantages of latecomers and the opportunities provided by the new industrial revolution, we should have full confidence in China’s future development. At the same time, China is also facing challenges in the development process. The first challenge is the population aging. However, China’s population aging will not cause China’s economic growth to drop to only about 2%, the level of the developed countries. The second challenge is friction and competition between China and the United States. There are very few technologies in the United States that can really “snap China’s neck”. As long as we make up our minds, we will be able to make breakthroughs in those few technologies currently unique to the U.S.. The third challenge is development goals such as peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. For traditional enterprises to convert traditional energy into new energy, the cost of the enterprise will be higher, but the impact is two-fold, there are challenges, and there are also huge opportunities.
中期借贷便利工具对国债利率期限结构的影响
——基于主成分分析和VEC模型的实证检验
邢天才 王再丰
本文基于利率期限结构理论，采用主成分分析和VEC模型探究MLF数量和利率调整对国债利率期限结构的影响机制。研究结果显示，MLF净投放和降低1年期MLF利率在长期显著降低国债收益率曲线斜率，降低1年期MLF利率将使国债收益率曲线曲率上升，通胀率上升会使国债收益率曲线斜率降低，曲率提高。价格型货币政策工具比数量型工具对债券市场影响更显著。建议继续发挥MLF作为连接货币政策与微观经济主体桥梁的作用，尝试货币政策通过债券市场传导，提高市场对宏观风险的预期能力和应对能力。
The Impact of Mid-Term Lending Facility on Term Structure of Government Bond Interest Rate
——Based on Principal Component Analysis and Empirical Test of VEC Model
XING Tian-cai WANG Zai-feng
Based on the theory of interest rate term structure, this paper uses principal component analysis and VEC model to explore the influence mechanism of medium-term lending facility (MLF) scale and interest rate adjustment on the term structure of the interest rate of government bond. The results of the study show that the net injection of MLF and the cut of 1-year MLF interest rate significantly reduce the slope of the yield curve of government bond in the long run. Reducing the 1-year MLF interest rate will increase the curvature, and the increase in inflation will reduce the slope of the yield curve, and increase the curvature. Price-based monetary policy tools have a more significant impact on the bond market than quantitative tools. It is recommended to continue to play the role of MLF as a bridge between monetary policy and microeconomic entities, try to transmit monetary policy through the bond market, and improve the market’s ability to anticipate and respond to macro risk.
高铁PPP项目与商业银行风险
——影响机理和博弈分析
谭克虎 杨 荇 王 永
基于不完全契约理论，本文分析了高铁PPP项目中银行过度承担风险的影响机理，并构建三方动态讨价还价博弈模型，计算得出风险分担的最优纳什均衡解。结果显示：契约机制难以有效约束公共部门和私营部门向银行过度转移风险行为；三方威慑作用和损耗系数决定了实际博弈中的风险分担比例；公共部门威慑作用更大，损耗系数更小，处于优势地位，易使私营部门和银行形成“同盟”与公共部门对抗。银行若想降低己方的风险比例，应更多了解对方的信息与谈判策略，减少谈判次数，降低损耗成本。
High-Speed Railway PPP Projects and Commercial Bank’s Risks
——Influence Mechanism and Game Analysis
TAN Ke-hu YANG Xing WANG Yong
Based on the theory of incomplete contracts, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of bank’s excessive risk-taking in high-speed railway PPP projects, and constructs a tripartite dynamic bargaining game model to calculate the optimal Nash equilibrium solution for risk-sharing. The results show it is difficult for the contract mechanism to effectively restrain the behaviors of public sector and the private sector from transferring excessive risks to the bank; the deterrence effects and the attrition coefficients of the tripartite determine the proportion of risk sharing in the actual game; the greater deterrence effect, the smaller attrition coefficient and the dominant position of the public sector make it easy that the private sector and the bank form an “alliance” to confront the public sector. If a bank wants to reduce its own risk proportion, it should learn more about the other party’s information and negotiation strategy, reduce the number of negotiation, and reduce attrition cost.
大气污染与贷款质量
——理论解读与实证检验
陈小辉 张红伟 吴永超
本文基于2005-2018年中国31个省（市、自治区）的面板数据，研究大气污染排放量与银行贷款质量之间的关系。研究结果表明，大气污染排放量与银行贷款质量之间为“倒U”形非线性关系，大气污染排放量存在拐点：低于拐点时，随着大气污染排放量的增加，银行贷款质量得到提升；超过拐点后，大气污染排放量的增加将降低银行贷款质量。进一步研究发现，政府干预有利于降低大气污染排放量，地区市场化与大气污染排放量间为“正U”形非线性关系，两者均通过大气污染排放量的部分中介效应，间接影响银行贷款质量。
Air Pollution and Loan Quality
——Theoretical Interpretation and Empirical Test
CHEN Xiao-hui ZHANG Hong-wei WU Yong-chao
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(cities, autonomous regions) in China during 2005-2018, this paper studies the relationship between air pollution emissions and the quality of bank loans. The results show that there is an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between air pollution emissions and bank loan quality, and there is an inflection point in air pollution emissions: below the point, with the increase of air pollution emissions, the bank loan quality is improved, while beyond the point, the increase in air pollution emissions will reduce the quality of bank loans. Further research shows that government intervention is conducive to reducing air pollution emissions, and there is a“positive U” shaped nonlinear relationship between the level of regional marketization and air pollution emissions. Both of the two indirectly affect the quality of bank loans through the partial mediating effect of air pollution emissions.
企业金融化与债务融资成本
——来自中国A股上市公司的证据
白雪莲 贺 萌 张俊瑞
本文以 2007-2018 年中国A 股上市公司为研究样本，从债权人的视角，考察企业金融化对债务融资成本的影响。研究发现，企业金融化导致债务融资成本增加，且这种影响主要源于企业配置的长期金融资产而非短期交易性金融资产。从作用机制上看，企业金融化提升了企业面临的经营风险，债权人要求更高的风险溢价导致债务融资成本增加；进一步研究发现，良好的内部控制能够缓解企业金融化对债务融资成本的负面影响。
Enterprise Financialization and Cost of Debt Financing
——Evidences from Chinese A-Share Listed Companies
BAI Xue-lian HE Meng ZHANG Jun-rui
This paper takes China’s A-share listed companies during 2007-2018 as samples to examine the impacts of enterprise financialization on debt financing costs from the perspective of creditor. It’s found that the financialization of enterprise leads to an increase in the cost of debt financing, and this impact mainly stems from the long-term financial assets allocated by the enterprise rather than the short-term transactional financial assets. From the perspective of impact mechanism, enterprise financialization increases the business risk of the enterprise, and the higher risk premium required by creditor leads to an increase in debt financing cost; the further research shows that sound internal control can alleviate the negative impact of enterprise financialization on debt financing cost.
金融结构与投资资本供给结构的非对称机制
孙彦林 吴业强 孙 烨
通过数理推演和马尔科夫区制转移模型分析，本文结果显示：（1）不论投资资本供给结构处于“优化区制”还是“恶化区制”内，金融结构失衡程度的加深均不利于投资资本供给结构的持续优化；（2）投资资本供给结构存在自稳定器机制，有着震荡式熨平波动的自发倾向；（3）当“稳增长”的目标权重上升时，投资资本供给结构会出现恶化倾向；（4）投资资本供给结构大幅波动易引发区制转移。
Asymmetric Mechanism of Financial Structure and Investment Capital Supply Structure
SUN Yan-lin WU Ye-qiang SUN Ye
The results of the mathematical deduction and analysis based on the Markov system transfer model show that, (1) whether the investment capital supply structure is in the “optimized regime” or “deteriorated regime”, the deepening of financial structure imbalance is not conducive to the continuous improvement in the investment capital supply structure; (2) the structure of investment capital supply has a self stabilizer mechanism, and shows a spontaneous tendency of vibrating fluctuation ironing; (3) when the weight of “steady growth” increases, the structure of investment capital supply shows a tendency of deterioration; (4) the large fluctuation of the structure of investment capital supply can easily lead to the transfer of regime switching.
地方政府专项债券拉动基础设施投资的效应
龙小燕 陈 旭 黄亦炫
本文构建一般均衡理论模型，从融资约束角度分析政府债券、融资平台、税收收入、土地出让等因素与中国基础设施投资的正相关关系，并利用中国2006-2018年省级面板数据评估以地方政府专项债券为首的融资渠道对基建投资的拉动效应，研究发现：（1）地方政府专项债券和融资平台融资规模对基础设施投资均存在显著正向影响，尤其是专项债券的政策引导和杠杆效应能够拉动更大规模的基建投资；（2）在经济发展水平较低、财力较弱的西部地区，政府债券的投资拉动作用更为明显。
Effect of Local Government Special Bond on Infrastructure Investment
LONG Xiao-yan CHEN Xu HUANG Yi-xuan
From the perspective of financing constraints, this paper constructs a general equilibrium theoretical model to analyze the positive correlation between China’s infrastructure investment and several factors like government bonds, local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), tax revenue and land transfer. The authors use China’s provincial panel data during 2006-2018 to evaluate the pulling effect of financing channels led by local government special bonds on infrastructure investment. The results show that, (1) the scale of local government special bonds and financing of LGFVs has a significant positive impact on infrastructure investment, especially the policy guidance and leverage effect of special bonds can promote a larger scale of infrastructure investment; (2) in western regions with low economic development level and weak financial power, the government bond plays a more significant role in stimulating investment.
新冠疫情对中国股票市场的影响
——基于事件研究法的研究
徐 宏 蒲红霞
本文运用事件研究法实证研究新冠疫情对中国股市的影响，并与非典和H7N9禽流感进行对比。研究发现：新冠疫情对股市造成显著负向冲击且呈W型趋势，对主板市场影响最大；除医药行业外，其他行业均受疫情负向影响；三次疫情对股市的负向冲击均呈短期性，一般在疫情公告日的第三到第八个交易日达到最大，新冠疫情的冲击最强烈，H7N9次之，非典最小；冲击持续时间上，新冠疫情为16天，非典为14天，H7N9为8天；新冠疫情影响股市的传导机制为投资者负面情绪的传染效应，导致不同地区的公司股价产生共振，造成股市整体下跌。
The Impact of COVID-19 on China’s Stock Market
——Based on Event Study
XU Hong PU Hong-xia
This paper uses event study to empirically study the impact of COVID-19 on China’s stock market and compares it with SARS and H7N9 avian influenza. It is found that COVID-19 has a significant negative impact on the stock market with a W trend, and has the greatest impact on the main board market; except for the pharmaceutical industry, other industries are negatively affected by the epidemic; the negative impacts of the three epidemics on the stock market are all short-term, generally reaching the maximum on the third to eighth trading day after the announcement of the epidemic, and the impact of COVID-19 is the strongest, followed by H7N9 and SARS. In terms of impact duration, COVID-19 lasts 16 days, SARS and H7N9 last 14 and 8 days respectively. The transmission mechanism of COVID-19’s impact on the stock market is the contagion effect of investors’ negative sentiment, which results in the resonance of stock prices in different regions, and overall decline of the stock market.