全球产业链重塑与中国的选择 （徐奇渊）
央行政策沟通的金融资产价格稳定效应
—— 以中国股票市场为例 （王 琳 刘宏雅 沈沛龙）
人民币汇率预期不确定性的影响因素研究
—— 基于时变脉冲响应和时变信息溢出的视角 （王爱俭 刘浩杰 王璟怡）
数字金融、金融错配与企业全要素生产率
—— 基于融资约束视角的分析 （王道平 刘琳琳）
数字普惠金融对经济高质量发展的影响研究 （姜 松 周鑫悦）
政府研发补贴与降低企业杠杆率 （汪 勇）
中国行业系统重要性评估及系统性风险防范研究 （卜 林 刘凯迪）
风险投资与企业技术创新三阶段关系研究
—— 以信息技术行业为例 （张春香 黄晓凤 陈晓东）
全球产业链重塑与中国的选择
徐奇渊
本文分析全球产业链重塑，将中美冲突作为一条主线，疫情冲击、数字化、绿色化作为三条辅线，得出以下结论：（1）数字时代全球化背景下，中美冲突具有特殊复杂性。（2）全球产业链重塑将呈多元化、数字化、绿色化。（3）中国产业链的全球影响力和脆弱性并存。（4）美国应对产业链悖论的策略值得重视。（5）中美共同提高关税排除率具有一定可能性。（6）中美科技竞争将呈三大新趋势。（7）中国产业链面临三个调整方向：外移、内迁、区域重组。
Reshaping of Global Industrial Chain and China’s Choice
XU Qi-yuan
This paper analyzes the reshaping of the global industrial chain, taking the Sino-US conflict as a main line and epidemic impact, digitization and greenization as three auxiliary lines, and draws the following conclusions: (1) against the background of digital globalization era, the conflict between China and the U.S. has a special complexity. (2) the reshaping of the global industrial chain will be diversified, digital and green. (3) the global influence and vulnerability of China’s industrial chain coexist. (4) the strategy of the United States to deal with the paradox of industrial chain is worthy of attention. (5) it is possible for China and the U.S. to jointly raise the tariff exclusion rate. (6) there will be three new trends in science and technology competition between China and the U.S. (7) China’s industrial chain will adjust in three directions: outward migration, inward migration and regional restructuring.
央行政策沟通的金融资产价格稳定效应
——以中国股票市场为例
王 琳 刘宏雅 沈沛龙
本文研究中国央行不同形式、不同主体、不同意图、不同时间政策沟通的稳定金融资产价格效应以及央行“言行一致”对政策效果的影响。实证结果显示：（1）央行沟通能够显著影响股票价格且能够降低资产价格波动。（2）从形式看，书面沟通较口头沟通对市场影响更大；从主体上看，行长沟通效果好于他人沟通；从政策意图上看，紧缩意图的政策效应大于宽松政策。（3）随预期管理重要性的提升，沟通效果得以更好发挥。（4）央行“言行一致”能够更好地稳定资产价格，“言行相悖”则会造成预期混乱，降低政策效果。
Effect of Central Bank’s Policy Communication on Financial Asset Price Stability
——Take China’s Stock Market As An Example
WANG Lin LIU Hong-ya SHEN Pei-long
This paper studies the stabilizing effect of PBoC’s policy communication of different forms, different subjects, different intentions and different time on the price stability of financial assets, and analyzes the influence of the central bank’s “consistency of words and deeds” on the policy effect. The empirical results show that (1) central bank communication can significantly affect stock prices and reduce asset price volatility. (2) in terms of form, written communication has a greater impact on the market than oral communication; from the perspective of subject, the communication effect of bank president is better than that of other people; from the perspective of policy intention, the effect of tightening policy is greater than that of easing policy. (3) with the improvement in the importance of expectation management, the effect of communication can be better played. (4) the central bank’s “consistency of words and deeds” can better stabilize asset prices, while “inconsistency of words and deeds” will cause confusion of expectation and reduce policy effect.
人民币汇率预期不确定性的影响因素研究
——基于时变脉冲响应和时变信息溢出的视角
王爱俭 刘浩杰 王璟怡
本文采用UCSV-RV模型测度人民币汇率预期不确定性。时变脉冲响应结果表明：外部地缘政治风险对汇率预期不确定性的影响具有逐渐衰减的特征，内部经济政策不确定性对汇率预期不确定性的影响具有逐渐增强的特征，外部地缘政治风险对内部经济政策不确定性呈现正向冲击。时变溢出结果表明：相较于外部地缘政治风险，汇率预期不确定性的变化更多源自于内部经济政策不确定性的溢出，同时外部地缘政治风险是内部经济政策不确定性溢出的净接收者。
Research on Influencing Factors of Uncertainty of RMB Exchange Rate Expectation
——Perspective Based on Time-Varying Impulse Response and Time-Varying Information Spillover
WANG Ai-jian LIU Hao-jie WANG Jing-yi
This paper uses UCSV-RV model to measure the uncertainty of RMB exchange rate expectation. The results of time-varying impulse response show that the impact of external geopolitical risk on the uncertainty of exchange rate expectation has the characteristics of gradual attenuation, the impact of internal economic policy uncertainty on the uncertainty of exchange rate expectation has the characteristics of gradual enhancement, and the external geopolitical risk has a positive impact on the uncertainty of internal economic policy. The time-varying spillover results show that, compared with the external geopolitical risk, the change of exchange rate expectation uncertainty is more from the spillover of internal economic policy uncertainty, and the external geopolitical risk is the net receiver of internal economic policy uncertainty spillover.
数字金融、金融错配与企业全要素生产率
——基于融资约束视角的分析
王道平 刘琳琳
本文分析数字金融对企业全要素生产率的影响及其作用机制，并基于中国A股非金融类企业进行经验检验。研究表明：数字金融的发展有助于促进企业全要素生产率提升，能够有效改善传统金融中存在的“金融歧视”与“金融错配”问题。机制分析表明，缓解企业融资约束是数字金融促进全要素生产率提升的重要途径。
Digital Finance, Financial Mismatch and Enterprise Total Factor Productivity
——Analysis Based on Perspective of Financing Constraints
WANG Dao-ping LIU Lin-lin
This paper analyzes the impact of digital finance on total factor productivity and its mechanism, and makes an empirical test based on Chinese A-share non-financial enterprises. It is found that the development of digital finance can promote the total factor productivity of enterprises and effectively improve the “financial discrimination” and “financial mismatch” in traditional finance. Mechanism analysis shows that easing the financing constraints of enterprises is an important way for digital finance to promote total factor productivity.
数字普惠金融对经济高质量发展的影响研究
姜 松 周鑫悦
本文通过构建面板数据模型，检验数字普惠金融对经济高质量发展的影响和机制。研究发现，当前数字普惠金融对经济高质量发展的影响表现为促进效应，但存在一定程度的结构性矛盾。数字普惠金融的数字化程度对经济高质量发展的影响表现为倒N形，具有抑制效应；进一步的影响机制检验表明，经济结构不合理是抑制效应产生的深层次原因。
An Empirical Study of the Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on
High-Quality Economic Development
JIANG Song ZHOU Xin-yue
This article examines the impact of digital inclusive finance on high-quality economic development and its mechanism by constructing a panel data model. It’s found that currently the digital inclusive finance has a promotional effect on high-quality economic development, but there is a structural contradiction to a certain degree. The influence of the level of digital finance on high-quality economic development presents an inverted N-shape, and has a restraining effect; the further examination of impact mechanism shows that the improper economic structure is the deep-seated cause of the restraining effect.
政府研发补贴与降低企业杠杆率
汪 勇
本文利用中国上市公司数据，实证分析研发补贴对企业杠杆率的影响。研究发现，研发补贴对企业杠杆率的影响呈现U形特征，且主要体现在对企业短期杠杆率上，而对企业长期杠杆率没有显著影响。作用机制上，研发补贴对企业负债和所有者权益的影响均呈现U形特征；研发补贴对民营企业、小规模企业、强融资约束企业和中等创新能力企业的杠杆率呈现U形影响，但不显著影响国有企业、大规模企业、弱融资约束企业和弱创新能力企业的杠杆率。
Government R&D Subsidy and Reducing Corporate Leverage
WANG Yong
This article uses the data of Chinese listed companies to empirically analyze the impact of R&D subsidy on corporate leverage. It’s found that the impact of R&D subsidy on corporate leverage is U-shaped, and it mainly impacts the corporate short-term leverage, but does not significantly impact the long-term leverage. In terms of the mechanism of action, the impacts of R&D subsidy on corporate liabilities and owner’s equity are U-shaped; furthermore, the impacts of R&D subsidy on the leverages of private enterprises, small-scale enterprises, enterprises with strong financing constraints or medium innovation capabilities are U-shaped, but it does not significantly impact the leverages of state-owned enterprises, large-scale enterprises, enterprises with weak financing constraints or weak innovation capabilities.
中国行业系统重要性评估及系统性风险防范研究
卜 林 刘凯迪
本文基于关联网络视角，提出度量行业系统性风险贡献的新方法——“留一法”（leave-one-out，LOO），将条件Granger因果检验方法与LOO相结合，评估行业的系统重要性程度。研究结果表明，虽然在传统无条件Granger因果检验方法和LOO方法下金融行业的系统重要性排名普遍靠后，但是各行业在两种研究方法中对应的系统重要性排名表现出很大的差异性；在全样本期内各行业之间普遍存在着较强的联动性，各行业的系统重要性排名会因不同极端事件冲击而发生明显变化。
Research on China's Industry Systemic Importance Evaluation and Systemic Risk Prevention
BU Lin LIU Kai-di
From the perspective of the correlation network, this paper proposes a new method measuring the systemic risk contribution of industry-“leave-one-out”(LOO), which combines the conditional Granger causality test method with LOO to evaluate the industry's degree of systemic importance. The research results show that, although the systemic importance ranking of financial industry is generally low by both the traditional unconditional Granger causality test method and the LOO method, the systemic importance ranking of each industry by the two methods shows great difference; in the entire sample period, generally there is a strong linkage among various industries, and the systemic importance ranking of each industry will change significantly due to the impact of different extreme event.
风险投资与企业技术创新三阶段关系研究
——以信息技术行业为例
张春香 黄晓凤 陈晓东
本文将企业技术创新区分为创新投入、实验室产出和产出市场化三个阶段，分别用研发投入、专利和商标来进行衡量，基于中小板和创业板上市的信息技术企业，探讨风险投资与上述三个不同阶段的双向关系。结果表明：风险投资与企业技术创新的三个不同阶段均相互影响，且对东部地区的企业以及员工人数规模较小的企业影响尤为明显；风险投资对技术创新市场化的影响最大，而实验室技术产出对风险投资的吸引作用最小。
Research on Three-Stage Relationship between Venture Investment and
Enterprise Technological Innovation
——A Case of Information Technology Industry
ZHANG Chun-xiang HUANG Xiao-feng CHEN Xiao-dong
In this paper, the enterprise technological innovation is divided into three stages: innovation input, laboratory outputand output marketization, and they are respectively measured by R&D input, patents and trademarks. Based on the information technology enterprises listed on the small and medium-sized enterprise board and growth enterprise board, the paper explores the two-way relationship between venture investment and three different stages mentioned above. The results show that, the venture investment and enterprise technological innovation impact each other at every stage, and this is particularly significant for enterprises in the eastern regions and with less employees; the impact of venture investment on the marketization of technological innovation is the greatest, while the laboratory technology output has the least attractive effect on venture investment.