关于中国对外开放的关键、重点和顺序的观点 （余淼杰）
金融供给侧结构性改革与制造业高质量发展
——失衡表现与路径选择 （郭 威 盛继明）
供应链金融中的信用风险传导机制及其仿真模拟 （王定祥 何乐佩 李伶俐）
公司债市场信用违约风险的传染效应与控制机理 （吴 涛 文梦悦 贺立龙）
疫情冲击下全球股市的风险溢出效应研究 （袁梦怡 胡 迪）
亏损后投资者风险偏好的变化 （马天平 卢旭蕊 李沁洋）
经济政策变动对企业金融化的影响研究
—— 基于中国A股上市公司的证据 （顾海峰 高水文）
气候变化背景下搁浅资产理论的演变 （危 平 舒 浩 成静涛）
关于中国对外开放的关键、重点和顺序的观点
余淼杰
中国在未来WTO的谈判中，关键是要争取市场经济地位，相比之下争取发展中国家地位的意义可能不是很突出。在未来世界发展格局中，区域合作将会取代全球化。相应地，中国未来对外开放合作的重点是半球化而非全球化，体现在中国与东盟和欧盟之间的经贸。因此，应把推进“一带一路”建设作为中国未来开放的重点与方向，特别是海上丝绸之路的建设。从开放顺序上看，宜先RCEP，次中欧CAI，再冲CPTPP。
Views on the Key, Focus and Sequence of China’s Opening Up
YU Miao-jie
In the future WTO negotiations, China’s key is to strive for market economy status. In contrast, the significance of striving for developing country status may not be very prominent. In the future world development pattern, the regional cooperation will replace globalization. Correspondingly, the focus of China’s future opening-up and cooperation is hemi-sphereization rather than globalization, which is reflected in the economic and trade between China, ASEAN and the EU. Therefore, the promotion of the“Belt and Road” construction should be the focus and direction of China’s future opening up, especially the construction of the Maritime Silk Road. From the perspective of the order of opening up, the RCEP should be first, then the CAI in Central Europe, and the CPTPP.
金融供给侧结构性改革与制造业高质量发展
——失衡表现与路径选择
郭 威 盛继明
长期以来中国金融业与制造业缺乏深度融合，未能形成良性循环，呈现出多重失衡特征，主要表现为六个方面：金融供给配置结构失衡、金融供给期限结构失衡、金融供给方式结构失衡、金融供给主体结构失衡、金融供给阶段结构失衡和金融供给政策衔接失衡。进入新发展阶段，为增强金融服务实体经济能力，推动制造业高质量发展，应加快发展先进制造业，推进传统产业转型升级，深化金融供给侧结构性改革，提升和加强金融服务实体经济意愿和能力，并完善相关配套政策体系，保障政策实施效果。
Financial Supply-Side Structural Reform and High-Quality Development of Manufacturing Industry
——Imbalance Performance and Path Selection
GUO Wei SHENG Ji-ming
For a long time, China’s financial industry and manufacturing industry lacked deep integration and failed to form a virtuous circle, and showed multiple imbalance characteristics which mainly manifested in six aspects: financial supply allocation structure imbalance, financial supply term structure imbalance, financial supply mode structure Imbalance, financial supplier structure imbalance, structural imbalance in the stage of financial supply, and imbalance in the linkage of financial supply policy. In the new stage of development, in order to enhance the financial services to the real economy and promote the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry, it is needed to accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing industry, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side, and strengthen the willingness and ability of finance serving real economy, and improve the related supporting policy system to ensure the effect of policy implementation.
供应链金融中的信用风险传导机制及其仿真模拟
王定祥 何乐佩 李伶俐
本文以应收账款融资模式为例，在分析供应链金融中信用风险传导因素与传导机制的基础上，利用强度模型对供应链金融中的信用风险进行度量，并运用SIR传染病模型对供应链金融中的信用风险传导机制进行仿真模拟。研究发现：在供应链金融中考虑企业间信用风险传导时，信用风险发生的概率与信用风险传导呈正相关关系；节点平均度越大的企业成为风险源时，信用风险的传导范围越广，且传导时间也越长；信用风险传导初期，高效的供应链风险预警能力对信用风险防控效果显著；强大的供应链风险处理能力能有效抑制信用风险传导范围并缩短传导时间。
Credit Risk Transmission Mechanism and Its Simulation in Supply Chain Finance
WANG Ding-xiang HE Le-pei LI Ling-li
Taking the accounts receivable financing as an example, based on the analysis of the credit risk transmission factors and transmission mechanism in supply chain finance, this paper uses the strength model to measure the credit risk in supply chain finance, and uses the SIR model to simulate the credit risk transmission mechanism in supply chain finance. It is found that when inter-enterprise credit risk transmission is considered in supply chain finance, the probability of credit risk becomes higher; when an enterprise with a higher average node degree becomes a risk source, the transmission range of credit risk becomes wider and the transmission time increases. In the early stage of credit risk transmission, efficient supply chain risk warning has a significant effect on credit risk prevention and control. Strong supply chain risk handling ability can effectively restrain the transmission range of credit risk and shorten the transmission time.
公司债市场信用违约风险的传染效应与控制机理
吴 涛 文梦悦 贺立龙
本文基于2014年1月-2020年9月公司债市场信用违约与一级市场信用利差省级月度面板数据，运用固定效应与中介效应模型，分析公司债违约风险传染效应。发现：（1）公司债违约风险在公司债市场内部传染并产生结构化定价效应，区域商业银行投债机制、政府兜底机制是重要的风险中介传导机制；（2）不同类型、信用等级、区域的公司债发行价格不同程度地受违约风险事件影响；（3）公司债违约事件所具有的特征也会影响公司债市场发行价格体系。
Contagion Effect and Control Mechanism of Default Risk in Corporate Bond Market
WU Tao WEN Meng-yue HE Li-long
Based on the provincial monthly panel data of credit default and primary market credit spread in corporate bond market from January 2014 to September 2020, this paper analyzes the contagion effect of corporate bond default risk by using fixed effect and intermediary effect model. It is found that, (1) the default risk of corporate bonds spreads within the corporate bond market and produces a structured pricing effect, and the bond investment mechanism of regional commercial banks and the government guarantee mechanism are important risk intermediary transmission mechanisms; (2) the issuing prices of corporate bonds of different types, credit grades and regions are affected by default risk events to varying degrees; (3) the characteristics of corporate bond default events will also affect the issuing price system of corporate bond market.
疫情冲击下全球股市的风险溢出效应研究
袁梦怡 胡 迪
本文通过构建全球股市风险溢出网络，测度疫情期间全球股市风险溢出强度，研究各国股市风险的传递方向及溢出机制；通过与2008年金融危机的横向比较以及全样本纵向分析，探究不同阶段全球股市风险溢出效应的差异。研究发现：（1）疫情期间全球股市风险总溢出强度先上升后下降，其强度明显高于2008年金融危机与全样本均值。（2）不同时期全球股市风险溢出中心存在差异，中国是全球股市的主要风险接受国。金融危机时期，美国是全球股市单一的风险溢出中心；疫情期间，疫情严重的欧洲国家成为全球股市的风险溢出中心。
Study of Risk Spillover Effect of Global Stock Market against Background of COVID-19 Impact
YUAN Meng-yi HU Di
By constructing the global stock market risk spillover network, this paper measures the risk spillover intensity of global stock market during the covid-19 epidemic, and studies the transmission direction and spillover mechanism of stock market risk in various countries. Through the horizontal comparison with the financial crisis in 2008 and the longitudinal analysis of the whole sample, this paper explores the differences in risk spillover effects of global stock market in different stages. It is found that, (1) during the epidemic period, the total risk spillover intensity of the global stock market first increases and then decreases, with its intensity significantly higher than the financial crisis in 2008 as well as the average value of the whole sample; (2) there are differences in the risk spillover centers of global stock market in different periods and China is the main recipient of global stock market risk. During the financial crisis, the U.S. was the single risk spillover center of the global stock market while in the period of COVID-19, European countries with serious epidemic become the risk spillover center of the global stock market.
亏损后投资者风险偏好的变化
马天平 卢旭蕊 李沁洋
对投资者风险偏好是否内生不变的理论之谜，本文利用国原油宝事件，根据真实的交易数据，分析投资者在损失后风险偏好的变化情况。研究发现，在经历损失后，投资者的风险偏好不易发生改变。尽管亏损数额越大，越易变为风险规避，但是该变化还受到两个因素的影响，一是家庭整体受冲击程度在一定程度上减弱这种变化，二是较强风险认知水平会加强此种变化。这揭示出：在金融市场中，要完全绝对意义上做到买者责任自负，不符合投资者的行为金融本性。为维持金融稳定，应对产品供给进行监管，而不单是强调买者责任自负。
Changes in Investor Risk Appetite after Loss
MA Tian-ping LU Xu-rui LI Qin-yang
Based on the “Oil Treasure” incident in China and the real transaction data, this paper analyzes the changes in investors’ risk appetite after loss. The empirical research based on the data shows that investors’ risk appetite is not easy to change after experiencing loss. Although the greater the amount of loss, the easier it is to become risk aversion, this change is impacted by two factors: one is that the overall impact on the household will weaken this change to a certain extent, and the other is that the level of risk awareness will strengthen this change. This reveals that in the financial market, the buyers being responsible for himself in an absolute sense does not conform to the nature of investors’ behavioral finance.
经济政策变动对企业金融化的影响研究
——基于中国A股上市公司的证据
顾海峰 高水文
本文基于2008-2018年中国A股上市公司数据，对经济政策不确定性对企业金融化的影响及其作用机制进行实证分析。研究表明：经济政策不确定性对企业金融化具有抑制作用，且抑制作用在非国有、低市盈率、高竞争地位、高市场化程度地区、低盈余管理程度、成长期企业中更为显著。高管权力提高会加剧代理问题，宽松货币政策会加剧投资扩张，由此减弱了经济政策不确定性对企业金融化的抑制作用。经济政策不确定性提高会加大企业风险承担与融资约束，在风险效应与资本效应双重约束下，企业将缩减金融资产配置规模而降低金融化程度。
Research on Impact of Economic Policy Changes on the Financialization of Enterprises
——Based on Evidence from Chinese A-Share Listed Companies
GU Hai-feng GAO Shui-wen
Based on the data of China’s A-share listed companies during 2008-2018, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise financialization and its mechanism. The results of the research show that the economic policy uncertainty has a restraining effect on the financialization of enterprise, and the restraining effect is more significant in enterprises which are non-state-owned, with low P/E ratio, high competitive position, low earnings management, located in high-degree-marketization regions, and in the stage of growth. The increased executive power will exacerbate agency problem, and loose monetary policy will exacerbate investment expansion, thereby weakening the restraining effect of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise financialization. Increasing economic policy uncertainty will increase the risk-taking and financing constraints of enterprise. The enterprise in the dual constraints of risk and capital effects will reduce the scale of financial asset allocation and therefore reduce the degree of financialization.
气候变化背景下搁浅资产理论的演变
危 平 舒 浩 成静涛
气候变化已成为威胁当今人类社会生存和发展的巨大挑战之一，在此背景下产生的搁浅资产也逐渐成为影响经济发展和金融安全稳定的重要因素。本文从搁浅资产的起源和成因出发，系统梳理搁浅资产概念的提出和发展，从公司风险、金融机构风险、系统性金融风险和全球经济风险四个层面详细阐释资产搁浅风险的形成机理和经济后果，继而对搁浅资产评估的行业和区域维度分析进行深入的文献评述。在此基础上，提炼当前搁浅资产研究的重点和难点，并展望未来的研究方向。
Evolution of Stranded Asset Theory against Background of Climate Change
WEI Ping SHU Hao CHENG Jing-tao
Climate change has become one of the great challenges threatening the survival and development of human society. Stranded asset generated in this context has gradually become an important factor affecting economic development and financial security and stability. Starting from the origin and causes of stranded asset, this paper systematically combs the proposal and development of the concept of stranded asset, explains in detail the formation mechanism and economic consequences of stranded asset risk on four levels including corporate risk, financial institution risk, systemic financial risk and global economic risk, and then makes an in-depth literature review on stranded asset evaluation from industrial and regional dimensions. On this basis, this paper refines the key and difficult points of the current stranded asset research, and looks forward to the future research direction.