省域城镇化金融支持效率及影响因素
韦福雷 胡彩梅 鞠耀绩 (3)
The Efficiency in Financial Support and Factors to Influence Provincial Urbanization
WEI Fu-lei HU Cai-mei JU Yao-ji (3)
县域金融信贷风险的影响因素——基于全国2069个县（市）的样本分析
黄 琦 陶建平 田 杰 (9)
The Factors to Impact the Credit Risks of County Financial Institutions——An Analysis Based on the Samples of China’s 2069 Counties (Cities)
HUANG Qi TAO Jian-ping TIAN Jie (9)
城镇化进程中的城乡金融排斥现象研究
陈本凤 周洋西 (16)
A Study of the Exclusion of Town and Rural Area from Financial Service in the Process of Urbanization
CHEN Ben-feng ZHOU Yang-xi (16)
金融城镇偏向对城镇化的影响——基于城乡二元框架的分析
中国人民银行长春中心支行课题组 (22)
The Influence of Financial Town-Bias on Urbanization——An Analysis Based on Urban-Rural Dual Framework
The Study Group of Changchun Central Branch, the People’s Bank of China (22)
中美商业银行财务报表比较及其对国内商业银行转型的启示
沈荣勤 (29)
Comparison of Financial Reports of Sino-US Commercial Banks and Enlightenment to Transformation of Chinese Commercial Banks
SHEN Rong-qin (29)
金融发展、银行信贷与商业信用再分配
牛培路 白 俊 (34)
Financial Development, Bank Lending and the Redistribution of Commercial Credits
NIU Pei-lu BAI Jun (34)
中国银行业逆周期资本缓冲的设置与分析
李 楠 陈暮紫 陈 敏 (43)
The Settings and Analysis of the Counter-Cyclical Capital Buffer of Chinese Banking Sector
LI Nan CHEN Mu-zi CHEN Min (43)
贸易信贷、银行核心资本充足率与货币政策效应
邹新月 易明翔 吴李淼 (51)
Trade Credit, Core Capital Adequacy Ratio of Bank and Effects of Monetary Policy
ZOU Xin-yue YI Ming-xiang WU Li-miao (51)
商业化与小额信贷机构绩效
张正平 圣 英 (58)
The Commercialization of Micro-finance Institutions and Their Performance
ZHANG Zheng-ping SHENG Ying (58)
流动性风险调整的银行在险价值计量研究
王书华 杨有振 (65)
A Study of the Measurement of Liquidity-Adjusted VaR of Banks
WANG Shu-hua YANG You-zhen (65)
人民币汇率的政治博弈与市场化形成机制改革
夏园园 秦智鹏 (73)
The Political Game of RMB Exchange Rate and the Reform of Market-Oriented Formation Mechanism
XIA Yuan-yuan QIN Zhi-peng (73)
省域城镇化金融支持效率及影响因素
韦福雷 胡彩梅 鞠耀绩
［摘 要］ 本文运用2007~2011年中国31个省区的面板数据，分析城镇化金融支持效率及影响因素。研究发现，绝大多数省区城镇化金融支持综合效率呈逐年上升的趋势，但是金融资源在城镇化建设中没有实现最优配置，其主要原因是规模效率偏低。在城镇化金融支持效率的各种影响因素中，房地产行业的发展和区位因素显著影响金融支持城镇化资源配置效率，房地产行业的发展有利于城镇化金融支持效率的提升。城镇化建设的金融资源配置效率存在显著的地区差异，东部地区城镇化金融支持效率并不比中西部地区高。
［关键词］ 城镇化；省域城镇化；金融支持；规模效率；房地产业
［Abstract］ Based on the panel data of China’s 31 provinces during 2007~2011, this paper analyses the efficiency in financial support for urbanization and factors to impact urbanization. It’s found that the overall efficiency in financial support for urbanization in most provinces trends in increase, but the financial resources are not optimal allocation in urbanization, the main reason of which is because the scale efficiency is low. Among the factors to impact the efficiency in financial support for urbanization, the development of real estate industry and the location are significant. The development of real estate industry is conducive to improvement in the efficiency. The financial resources vary significantly in allocation efficiency from region to region, and the efficiency in the the eastern region is not higher than that in the central and western regions.
［Key words］ urbanization; provincial urbanization; financial support; scale efficiency; real estate industry
县域金融信贷风险的影响因素——基于全国2069个县（市）的样本分析
黄 琦 陶建平 田 杰
［摘 要］ 本文选取2006~2010年全国2 069个县（市）的面板数据，采用固定效应模型，从县域金融总体和县域商业银行、县域信用社两个层面分析影响不良贷款率变化的宏观和微观因素。研究发现：增加县域居民可支配收入、固定资产投资、加强政府财政支持、优化资源配置和产业结构，有助于化解县域金融信贷风险；县域商业银行农贷业务的信贷风险与农贷市场份额正相关；县域信用社的运营能力对降低县域金融机构的不良贷款率有重要影响。为有效化解县域金融信贷风险，应完善征信体系以优化县域金融生态环境，实施积极的县域宏观调控政策以提高居民收入。
［关键词］ 县域金融机构；县域商业银行；县域信用社；信贷风险
［Abstract］ Based on the panel data of China’s 2069 counties (cities) during 2006~2010 and the fixed effect model, this paper analyse the macro- and micro-factors to impact the changes in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios of the overall county financial institutions and the county commercial banks or county credit unions. It’s found that the increases in county residents’ disposable income, fixed assets investment, governmental financial support, optimization of resource allocation and industrial structure help resolve the risks of county financial credit; the credit risks of the agricultural credit business of county commercial banks are positively related to their market share of the business; the operational capacity of county credit unions has an important influence on decrease in the NPL ratio of county financial institutions. In order to resolve the financial credit risks effectively, it’s necessary to improve credit system to optimize county financial ecological environment, and implement active macroeconomic policy to increase county residents’ income.
［Key words］ county financial institution; county commercial bank; county credit union; credit risk
城镇化进程中的城乡金融排斥现象研究
陈本凤 周洋西
［摘 要］ 本文基于省际数据利用主成分分析方法测算了中国29个省市城镇和农村的金融排斥地区差异，分析造成这种差异的主要原因。实证结果表明：中国城镇和农村的金融排斥地区差异问题及城乡金融和区域金融发展不平衡问题显著；中国城镇和农村金融排斥差异在地理上具有集聚性，即经济相对发达的东部地区城乡金融排斥整体上较中部和西部更加严重；地区整体的就业情况、居民消费水平、居民家庭平均每人全年总收入以及固定资产投资对中国城乡金融排斥地区差异呈现正的显著性影响，而女性人口占比对城乡金融排斥差异则呈现出负的显著性影响。
［关键词］ 城镇化；城乡金融；区域金融；金融排斥
［Abstract］ Based on the provincial data and the principal component analysis, this paper measures the difference in the exclusion of town and rural area from financial service in China’s 29 provinces. The empirical results show that the difference in the exclusion, and the imbalance of financial development between town and rural area or regions are significant; the exclusion has geographically-gathered characteristics, which means the exclusion in the economy-developed eastern areas is more greater than that in the central and western areas; the overall employment, resident’s consumption and average annual income, fixed asset investment in the region significantly and positively impact the exclusion; female population ratio significantly and negatively impacts the exclusion.
［Key words］ urbanization; town and rural finance; regional finance; exclusion from financial service
金融城镇偏向对城镇化的影响——基于城乡二元框架的分析
中国人民银行长春中心支行课题组
［摘 要］ 本文基于城乡二元分析框架，构建用于研究中国金融城镇偏向对城镇化影响的理论模型，分析金融城镇偏向对城镇化影响的非线性效应。研究发现：中国金融城镇偏向对城镇化的影响显著地存在基于工业化水平的“双门限效应”，即在不同的工业化水平下，金融城镇偏向对城镇化的影响表现出阶段性特征；工业化水平是城镇化发展的重要决定因素；城镇金融效率对城镇化产生明显的积极影响；市场化程度已经成为城镇化发展的主要影响因素；市场化程度的提高改善投资环境，从而有利于加快城镇化进程。
［关键词］ 金融城镇偏向；城镇化；工业化；双门限效应；城乡二元框架
［Abstract］ Based on the urban-rural dual framework, this paper constructs a theoretical model to research the non-linear effects of the influence of China’s financial town-bias on urbanization. It is found that the influence significantly shows a “double-threshold effect” based on the level of industrialization, which means the influence shows phase characteristics at the different level of industrialization; the level of industrialization is an important factor to determine the development of urbanization; the financial efficiency of towns has a significant and positive influence on urbanization; the developmental degree of market has become a main factor to impact the development of urbanization; the increase in the developmental degree of market improves the investment environment, which is conducive to speeding up urbanization process.
［Key words］ financial town-bias; urbanization; industrialization; double-threshold effect; urban-rural dual framework
中美商业银行财务报表比较及其对国内商业银行转型的启示
沈荣勤
［摘 要］ 本文以2013年全球一级资本排名前10的8家中美商业银行为样本，对其2012年财务报表进行比较分析，进而揭示出两国商业银行在经营方式、盈利模式、负债策略和监管制度等方面存在的差异及优劣。在此基础上，提出国内商业银行要通过“内外兼修”推进转型：一是商业银行要实现“三个转型”，即经营方式从分业化向综合化转型，盈利模式从信贷大行向信用大行转型，负债策略从被动负债为主向被动与主动负债并重转型；二是监管部门要推进“三个转变”，即货币政策工具从数量型向价格型转变，监管方式从存贷比监控向流动性监控转变，管理机制从行政管制向市场引导转变。
［关键词］ 中美商业银行；财务报表；经营转型；盈利模式；负债策略；监管制度
［Abstract］ This paper selects the Chinese and American 8 commercial banks, the first-tier capital of each bank ranking the world’s top 10 in 2013, as samples to analyse their 2012’s financial reports comparatively, and reveal the differences and pros & cons of the operational mode, profit mode, liability strategy, regulatory systems, etc. of Chinese and American commercial banks. Based on the analysis, the paper proposes the internal and external improvements to promote the transformation of Chinese commercial banks: first, the commercial banks should achieve the“three aspects of transformation”, i.e. operational mode from the separate to the integrated, profit mode from big lending bank to big credit bank, liability strategy from the passive to the combination of the passive and the active; second, the regulatory authorities should promote the“three changes”, monetary policy tool from the type of quantity to the type of price, regulatory approach from the monitoring of loan-deposit ratio to the monitoring of liquidity, management system from the administrative control to the market introduction.
［Key words］ Chinese and American commercial banks; financial report; operational transformation; profit mode; liability strategy; regulatory system
金融发展、银行信贷与商业信用再分配
牛培路 白 俊
［摘 要］ 本文选取2003~2010年中国沪深两市A股上市公司数据为研究样本，检验国有企业和非国有企业的商业信用再分配功能，并考察金融发展对商业信用再分配功能的影响。研究结果表明，获得银行信贷多的企业提供的商业信用多，商业信用再分配功能在不同产权性质企业间存在显著差异，获得较多银行信贷的国有企业提供的商业信用显著少于非国有企业。同时，金融发展有助于非国有企业获得更多的银行信贷，提供更多的商业信用。进一步检验发现，企业提供商业信用是为了更好地参与产品市场竞争，提高企业经营绩效。
［关键词］ 金融发展；产权性质；银行信贷；商业信用；信用再分配
［Abstract］ This paper selects the data of the companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets during 2003~2010 as samples to test the redistribution function of the commercial credits of state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises, and examine the influence of financial development on the redistribution function of the commercial credits. The results of the paper show that the more loans the enterprises gain from banks, the more commercial credits they provide; there are significant differences in the redistribution function of the commercial credits between the enterprises with different nature of property rights, and the commercial credits provided by the state-owned enterprises that gain more loans from banks are obviously less than those provided by the non-state-owned enterprises. In addition, the financial development is conducive to the non-state-owned enterprises gaining more loans from banks and providing more commercial credits. The further examinations show the reason why the enterprises provide commercial credits is to participate in competition in product market better and improve operational performance.
［Key words］ financial development; nature of property rights; bank lending; commercial credit; credit redistribution
中国银行业逆周期资本缓冲的设置与分析
李 楠 陈暮紫 陈 敏
［摘 要］ 本文通过趋势外推法、VAR方法、ARIMA模型对信贷余额/GDP进行了估计，并预测信贷余额/GDP及其与长期趋势的偏离度等相关经济指标，基于预测结果外推12个月后的逆周期资本数额。结果表明，组合预测法不仅对商业银行逆周期资本的长期设置估计精度较高，且可以对2011年出现的逆周期资本由增加到释放的拐点给出前瞻性判断。该方法可为银行信贷投放和管理、监管机构逆周期资本操作提供借鉴。信贷余额/GDP在很大程度上能够反映中国银行业系统性风险的大小，可以作为中国逆周期资本计提的主要参考指标。
［关键词］ 银行业；逆周期资本；资本缓冲；信贷余额/GDP；信贷管理；组合预测
［Abstract］ Based on the trend extrapolation, VAR method and ARIMA model, this paper estimates the credit /GDP, and forecasts the credit /GDP, the deviation degree between credit /GDP and its long-term trend, and other related economic indicators, then extrapolate from the forecast results to the amount of counter-cyclical capital 12 months later. It is found that the combination-forecast method can not only accurately estimate the long-term settings of counter-cyclical capitals, but also judge in advance the turning point of counter-cyclical capitals from increase to release in 2011. The method may be a reference for banks to grant and manage credits, and for regulator’s manipulation of counter-cyclical capitals. The credit/GDP can well reflect the level of systemic risks in the Chinese banking sector, and it can serve as a main reference indicator for China’s counter-cyclical capital provision.
［Key words］ banking sector; counter-cyclical capital; capital buffer; credit/GDP; credit management; combination forecast
贸易信贷、银行核心资本充足率与货币政策效应
邹新月 易明翔 吴李淼
［摘 要］ 本文从信贷和货币渠道研究贸易信贷、银行核心资本充足率对货币政策效果的影响机理，并利用2002~2012年制造业上市公司的季度数据及VAR脉冲响应分析方法对此机理进行实证检验，结果表明：贸易信贷长期与货币供应量正相关，但贸易信贷、银行核心资本充足率短期内会影响货币政策的效果。随着金融服务不断创新，股票市场、债券市场、贸易信贷市场、金融衍生品市场以及汽车金融公司、消费金融公司、小额贷款公司等非存款类金融机构对货币政策调控效果产生直接影响。因此，监管部门应重视直接融资市场和非存款类金融机构，将社会直接融资规模纳入到政策制定的考虑因素之中。
［关键词］ 贸易信贷；核心资本充足率；货币政策；直接金融；VAR
［Abstract］ From the perspectives of credit and monetary channel, this paper researches the mechanism that the core capital adequacy ratio of bank influences the effects of monetary policy, and uses the quarterly data of the listed manufacturing companies during 2002~2012 and the VAR impulse response analysis method to test the mechanism empirically. The results of the paper show that the trade credit is positively related to the monetary supply in the long term, but the trade credit, the core capital adequacy ratio of bank influence the effects of monetary policy. With the innovation of financial services, stock market, bond market, trade credit market, financial derivatives market and car finance company, consumer finance company, small loan company and other non-deposit financial institutions will directly impact the effects of monetary policy. Therefore, the regulatory authorities should pay attention to the direct financing market and non-deposit financial institutions, and consider the scale of direct financing while they make policies.
［Key words］ trade credit; core capital adequacy ratio; monetary policy; direct financing; VAR
商业化与小额信贷机构绩效
张正平 圣 英
［摘 要］ 基于2009~2011年中国77家小额信贷机构的面板数据，本文建立计量模型实证检验了商业化对其财务绩效和社会绩效的影响。在本文中，商业化被定义为小额信贷机构发放单笔额度大于10万元的贷款总额占当年贷款发放总额的比例，同时以机构规模、经营效率、成立年限、经济发展水平等作为模型的控制变量。实证结果表明：商业化对小额信贷机构的社会绩效产生了一定的负面影响，但对财务绩效有显著的正向影响，同时，机构的经营效率与社会绩效之间存在显著的正向关系。因此，改善机构经营效率、加大政策引导力度可以有效地促进商业化对小额信贷机构绩效的正向影响。
［关键词］ 小额信贷机构；商业化；社会绩效；财务绩效
［Abstract］ Based on the panel data of Chinese 77 micro-finance institutions(MFIs) during 2009~2011, this paper builds econometric models, and empirically tests the impacts of commercialization on the financial and social performance of MFIs. In this paper, the commercialization of MFIs is measured by the ratio of the total amount of loans, each of which is beyond 0.1 million yuan, to the total amount of the loans of the year, and the institution scale, operational efficiency, age of MFI, developmental level of economy are the control variables of the models. The empirical results show that the commercialization has certain negative impacts on social performance, but it has significant positive impacts on financial performance. Moreover, there is a significant positive correlation between operating efficiency and social performance. Therefore, to improve MFIs’ operational efficiency and strengthen policy guidance will effectively promote the positive impacts of commercialization on the MFIs’ performance.
［Key words］ micro-finance institution; commercialization; social performance; financial performance
流动性风险调整的银行在险价值计量研究
王书华 杨有振
［摘 要］本文基于中国12家上市商业银行2007年9月25日至2013年6月24日的日股票价格波动，构建GARCH-LaVaR模型用于计量商业银行流动性风险调整的在险价值，对商业银行流动性风险调整的在险价值La_VaR计量方法进行了改进。通过12家商业银行股票日收益率波动GARCH模拟，对商业银行流动性调整在险价值进行了计量。实证分析表明：商业银行流动性风险在金融危机冲击期间具有较强的非常态波动现象，大型商业银行的流动性风险波动较小，而小型商业银行的流动性风险波动较大。
［关键词］商业银行；流动性风险；在险价值；GARCH-LaVaR；
［Abstract］ Based on the fluctuations of the daily stock price of Chinese 12 listed commercial banks during 25, September 2007~24, June 2013, this paper builds a GARCH-LaVaR model to measure the liquidity-Adjusted VaR of Chinese listed commercial banks, and improves the measurement method of the liquidity-adjusted La-VaR of commercial banks. By the GARCH simulation of the daily return fluctuations of 12 commercial banks, the paper measures the liquidity-adjusted VaR of commercial banks.The empirical analysis shows that the liquidity risks of commercial banks fluctuate abnormally during the financial crisis, and the fluctuation extent of large commercial banks is less than that of small commercial banks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; liquidity risk; VaR; GARCH-LaVaR
人民币汇率的政治博弈与市场化形成机制改革
夏园园 秦智鹏
［摘 要］ 本文在分析人民币二次汇率改革的基础上，梳理针对人民币汇率问题发生的中美政治事件。对该类政治事件的实证分析表明，美方对人民币汇率问题的施压在一定程度上推动了人民币更快升值。美立法部门的政治施压对人民币升值的影响效应显著大于行政部门，立法部门的施压不仅导致人民币央行中间价的升值，还影响市场预期，造成人民币外汇即期市场大幅波动。中美政治关系对人民币汇率的影响表明人民币汇率水平并非完全由市场决定。因此，现阶段人民币汇率改革重心应放在市场化形成机制的推进与完善方面。
［关键词］ 人民币汇率；二次汇改；政治博弈；市场化改革
［Abstract］ This paper analyzes the restarting of RMB exchange rate reform and Sino-US political events of RMB exchange rate. The empirical analysis of the events shows that the pressures from the United States can promote RMB to appreciate faster. The effects of the political pressure from the US legislative institution on RMB appreciation are significantly greater than those of the executive institution. The pressure from the legislative institution not only leads to the the central parity appreciation of RMB, but also impacts the market expectations and results in great price fluctuation in RMB foreign exchange spot market. The influence of the Sino-US political relationship on RMB exchange rate shows that the RMB exchange rate is not entirely determined by market, therefore, the reform of RMB exchange rate at this stage should focus on the promotion and improvement of the market-oriented formation mechanism.
［Key words］ RMB exchange rate; restarting of RMB exchange rate reform; political game; market-oriented reform