中国商业银行盈利能力的影响因素——基于1997~2010年数据的实证分析
陆 静 阿拉腾苏道 尹宇明（3）
Factors to Affect the Profitability of Chinese Commercial Banks——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data during 1997~2010
LU Jing Allah Teng-su-dao YIN Yu-ming（3)
中国上市银行流动性风险综合评价
钟永红 曹丹蕊（15）
The Comprehensive Evaluation of the Liquidity Risks of Chinese Listed Banks
ZHONG Yong-hong CAO Dan-rui (15)
基于社会责任视角的商业银行品牌竞争研究
乔海曙 王惟希 莫 莎（20）
A Study of Brand Competition of Commercial Banks from the Perspective of Social Responsibility
QIAO Hai-shu WANG Wei-xi MO Sha (20)
商业银行个人客户价值评价模型研究
孙 景 李 莉 胡宏力（29）
A Study of the Model to Evaluate the Personal Customer’s Value of Commercial Bank
SUN Jing LI Li HU Hong-li (29)
供应链金融发展与中小企业融资——基于制造业中小上市公司的实证分析
刘 可 缪宏伟（36）
The Supply Chain Finance and the SME Financing —— An Empirical Study Based on Small and Medium-Sized Listed Manufacturing Companies
LIU Ke MIU Hong-wei (36)
商业银行高端潜力客户的市场细分研究
王文硕 赵 倩（45）
A Study of the Market Segmentation of the Potential High-Class Customers of Commercial Banks
WANG Wen-shuo ZHAO Qian (45)
商业银行跨境贸易人民币结算业务研究
苟红军 陈 迅（52）
The Research on the RMB Settlement of the Cross-Border Trade of Commercial Banks
GOU Hong-jun CHEN Xun (52)
《有效存款保险制度核心原则》及其启示
温树英 齐向莉（58）
CORE PRINCIPLES FOR EFFECTIVE DEPOSIT INSURANCE SYSTEMS and Its Enlightenment
WEN Shu-ying QI Xiang-li (58)
中资银行海外并购的市场价值分析
张 晶 冯 晶（63）
An Analysis of the Market Value of the Overseas Merger and Acquisition of Chinese Banks
ZHANG Jing FENG Jing (63)
全球新兴市场风险与中资银行国际化
宋 玮（68）
The Risks in Global Emerging Markets and the Internationalization of Chinese Banks
SONG Wei (68)
危机以来欧洲银行业的经营转型
李 楠 王家强（74）
The Operational Transformation of European Banking Sector after the Crisis
LI Nan WANG Jia-qiang (74)
中国商业银行盈利能力的影响因素——基于1997~2010年数据的实证分析
陆 静 阿拉腾苏道 尹宇明
［摘 要］本文将影响银行盈利的因素分为内部环境和外部环境两个方面，采用面板广义矩估计方法对1997～2010年中国144家商业银行进行了实证分析。研究发现，商业银行的盈利能力除了与银行特征有关，还与金融市场结构和宏观经济变量相关。其中，不良贷款率、坏账存量和破产概率等风险指标与利润率显著负相关，银行存款份额和经营效率与利润显著正相关；GDP增长率、通货膨胀率和存贷款基准利差等外部宏观环境也会显著影响商业银行盈利水平。中国银行业应在发展利息收入的同时，进一步开拓非利息收入业务和提高经营水平，构建多渠道盈利的模式。
［关键词］ 商业银行；盈利能力；利息收入；非利息收入；盈利模式
［Abstract］ In this paper, the factors to affect the profitability of banks are divided into two types: internal environment and external environment. The paper uses the paneld data during 1997~2010 and the GMM method to analyse 144 Chinese commercial banks empirically. It is found that the profitability of banks is not only related to the bank characteristics, but also the structure of financial market and the macroeconomic variables; the percentage of non-performing loan, the amount of bad debt, the bankruptcy probability and other risk indicators are related to the ratio of profit significantly and negatively; the share of bank deposits and operatiinal efficiency are related to profit significantly and positively; the factors of external macro-environment, such as GDP growth, inflation and the benchmark rate of deposit and loan, etc., also impact the profit of commercial bank. Chinese banking sector should explore non-interest income business, improve operation and build a multi-channel profit pattern while it develops interest income.
［Key words］ commercial bank; profitability; interest income; non-interest income; profit pattern
中国上市银行流动性风险综合评价
钟永红 曹丹蕊
［摘 要］ 本文从商业银行流动性资产储备、负债结构和稳定性、期限结构错配程度、资产安全性和市场融资能力五个维度选择15个流动性风险的基础评价指标，基于因子分析法提炼出流动性风险的主要影响因素，构建商业银行流动性风险综合评价模型。论文以16家上市银行2011年的年末数据进行实证分析，结果显示：大型商业银行得益于市场地位的优势，总体流动性风险最低；城市商业银行由于积极进行流动性风险管理，总体流动性风险次之；其他股份制银行既缺少“主动负债”的优势，经营业绩也相对要差，因而流动性风险相对最高。
［关键词］ 上市银行；流动性风险；风险评价；风险管理
［Abstract］ From five dimensions, i.e. the reserve of liquid assets, the liability structure and stability, the degree of mismatch of term, the asset security and the market financing capacity of commercial bank, this paper selects 15 fundamental indicators to evaluate liquid risks. Based on the factor analysis method, the paper obtains main factors to affect liquid risks and constructs a comprehensive model to evaluate the liquidity risks of commercial banks. With the data of 16 listed banks at the end of 2011, the paper presents an empirical analysis. The results show that, due to the advantages in market, the large commercial banks have the lowest risks of overall liquidity; due to the positive management of liquidity risks, the city commercial banks have the second-low risks; other joint-stock banks lack the“positive liability” advantages and their performance of operation is relatively worse, so their liquidity risks are relatively the highest.
［Key words］ listed bank; liquidity risk; risk evaluation; management of risk
基于社会责任视角的商业银行品牌竞争研究
乔海曙 王惟希 莫 莎
［摘 要］ 本文基于“三维度”社会责任分层理论，从保障内部收益、完善金融服务、投身慈善公益、维护金融安全和优化资源配置方面构建社会责任指数，对商业银行社会责任履行情况进行排名，结果表明，国有商业银行履行程度较高，社会责任履行情况与品牌价值排名一致。社会责任的重要性在于其通过促进企业与利益相关者建立良好的关系，提高企业声誉，提升品牌价值，实现品牌竞争优势，进而增进银行软实力，且高位责任对品牌价值影响更大。商业银行需要强化品牌价值，提高社会责任履行程度，同时应完善披露制度，推广社会责任履行义务。
［关键词］ 商业银行；品牌竞争；品牌价值；社会责任；社会责任指数
［Abstract］ Based on the three-dimension stratification theory of social responsibility, this paper sets social responsibility indexes, which are related to ensuring internal revenue, improving financial services, joining charity and public walfare activities, ensuring financial security and optimizing resource allocation, to rank commercial banks in the aspect of performing their social responsibility. The resuls show that the state-owned commercial banks perform social responsibility to a higher degree and their performance is consistent with their brand value rankings. The importance of social responsibility is to improve the reputation and brand value of enterprise, enhance the competitive advantage of brand and the soft power of banks by promoting enterprise to establish a good relationship with its stakeholds. It is found that the high responsibility has a greater influence on brand value. Commercial banks need to strengthen brand value, improve the performance of social responsibility and the disclosure system at the same time, promote the fulfillment of social responsibility.
［Key words］ commercial bank; brand competition; brand value; social responsibility; social responsibility index
商业银行个人客户价值评价模型研究
孙 景 李 莉 胡宏力
［摘 要］ 本文研究如何科学准确地评价商业银行个人客户价值，提出从客户历史贡献度、潜在贡献度以及风险水平三个维度评价客户价值，建立具有可操作性的商业银行个人客户价值评价模型。本文认为，在建立个人客户历史贡献度评价模型时，应分别计算客户的资产业务贡献、负债业务贡献和中间业务贡献，然后将三者之和作为客户历史贡献度；衡量客户对银行潜在收益的贡献时，应该考虑客户的潜在货币价值和客户的非货币价值；客户潜在贡献度的影响因素包括信用风险水平和转移风险水平， 商业银行应该以客户为中心区别不同的客户类型，对应采取差别化营销策略。
［关键词］ 商业银行；个人客户价值；客户贡献度；客户细分
［Abstract］ This paper studies how to evaluate the personal customer’s value of commercial bank scientifically and accurately and proposes to set a practicable model to evaluate the personal customer’s value of commercial bank in three dimensions, historical contribution, potential contribution and the level of risk. The paper argues that, while a model is set to evaluate the personal customer’s historical contribution, the customer’s contributions of assets business, liabilities business and intermediate business should be separately calculated and then the sum of the contributions of the three businesses is viewed as customer’s historical contribution; the customer’s potential monetary value and non-monetary value should be considered while the customer’s contribution to the potential income of the bank is measured; the factors to affect the customer’s potential contribution include the level of credit risks and the level of risks transference; commercial banks should classify the different customers based on customers’ value and implement a differentiated marketing strategy.
［Key words］ commercial bank; personal customer’s value; customer’s contribution; customer classification
供应链金融发展与中小企业融资——基于制造业中小上市公司的实证分析
刘 可 缪宏伟
［摘 要］ 本文从投资—现金流敏感性的角度出发，利用我国制造业中小上市公司2001~2011年的数据，对投资—现金流敏感性进行验证，发现中小企业存在较为明显的融资约束，随着供应链金融的发展其所面临的融资约束得到一定程度地缓解。因此，政府应积极为供应链金融发展搭建政策平台，扮演好服务者的角色；金融机构应将供应链金融作为对中小企业融资渠道的业务创新、提升自身核心竞争力和盈利能力的重要手段；第三方物流企业应加强与企业深度合作提升增值服务价值，在为中小企业系统解决物流综合问题的同时也为企业提供融资服务。
［关键词］ 供应链金融；投资—现金流敏感性；融资约束；制造业中小企业
［Abstract］ From the perspective of investment-cash flow sensitivity, this paper uses the data of small and medium-sized listed manufacturing companies during 2001~2011 to validate the investment-cash flow sensitivity. It is found that SMEs face significant financing constraints and the constraints decrease to some extent with the development of supply chain finance. Therefore, the paper suggests that the government should actively build a policy platform for the development of supply chain finance and play a role of attendant; financial institutions should view the business of supply chain finance as a business innovation of financing channels for SMEs and an important way to enhance their own core competitiveness and profitability; the third-party logistics enterprises should strengthen the deep cooperation with other enterprises to enhance the value of value-added service and provides financing service for the SMEs while solving the comprehensive logistics problem systematicly.
［Key words］ supply chain finance; investment-cash flow sensitivity; financing constraint; manufacturing SMEs
商业银行高端潜力客户的市场细分研究
王文硕 赵 倩
［摘 要］ 本文采用调查问卷方法收集目标市场客户对国内某商业银行的忠诚度数据，以客户年龄为维度对银行高端潜力客户进行细分研究。研究发现：金融总资产和金融总负债并不能帮助银行识别各年龄段的高端潜力客户群的差异性；年龄组0（≤35岁）与组1（36~45岁）的客户在总账户数和总产品种类上均没有显著差别，年龄组0和年龄组1的总账户数和总产品种类数均显著少于年龄组2（≥46岁）；年龄组0交易次数适中，与年龄组1、年龄组2的客户差别不大；年龄组0的贡献度和忠诚度均显著低于组1和组2，而年龄组1的贡献度和忠诚度与年龄组2没有显著差别。
［关键词］ 商业银行；市场细分；高端潜力客户；客户生命周期
［Abstract］ This paper uses questionnaire method to collect the data of target-market customers’ loyalty to a domestic commercial bank and researches the market segmentation of the potential high-class customers of the banks. The results show that the total financial assets and financial liabilities do not help banks identify the difference of the potential high-class customers at all ages. There is no significant difference in the number of total accounts and the types of total products between the customers in age group 0 （≤35 years old） and the customers in group 1 （36~45 years old）; the number of total accounts and the types of total products in group 0 or group 1 are significantly less than those in group 2 （≥46 years old）; the transaction number in group 0 is moderate and is not very different from that in group 1 or group 2; the loyalty in group 0 is significantly lower than that in group 1 or group 2, however, there is no significant difference in loyalty between group 1 and group 2.
［Key words］ commercial bank; market segmentation; potential high-class customer; customer’s life cycle
商业银行跨境贸易人民币结算业务研究
苟红军 陈 迅
［摘 要］ 本文基于SWOT方法对跨境贸易人民币结算进行分析，研究表明，商业银行开展跨境贸易人民币结算业务的优势在于我国日益增长的经济实力、金融市场体系相对稳定、居民和非居民对人民币国际结算需求明显；劣势在于境外人民币流通渠道有限、金融市场发展不够、企业选用人民币结算存在障碍。开展跨境贸易人民币结算业务有利于提升人民币的国际地位，有利于中国银行业的发展。我国商业银行应加强与境外金融机构合作，深入挖掘目标客户需求，充分利用政策创新业务，防范跨境业务风险，推进跨境贸易人民币结算业务实现又好又快地发展。
［关键词］ 商业银行；跨境贸易人民币结算；人民币国际化；SWOT方法
［Abstract］ Based on the SWOT method, this paper analyses the RMB settlement of cross-border trade. The results show that Chinese commercial banks’ advantages of the RMB settlement business of cross-border trade are the Chinese growing economic strength, the relatively stable financial market system, the residents’ and non-residents’ explicit need for RMB international settlement; the disadvantages are the limited offshore distribution channels of RMB, the less developed financial markets, the obstacles to enterprises choosing RMB to settle. The RMB settlement business of cross-border trade is conducive to the enhancement of the international status of RMB and the development of Chinese banking sector. Chinese commercial banks should strengthen the cooperation with overseas financial institutions, search the target customer’s needs, take full advantage of policies to innovate business, prevent the risks of cross-border business, promote the sound and rapid development of the RMB settlement business of cross-border trade.
［Key words］ commercial bank; RMB settlement of cross-border trade; RMB internationalization; SWOT method
《有效存款保险制度核心原则》及其启示
温树英 齐向莉
［摘 要］ 巴塞尔银行监管委员会与国际存款保险人协会共同制定的《有效存款保险制度核心原则》代表了存款保险国际规范的新发展，为各国评估、建立或改革存款保险制度提供了有益参考，对中国建立存款保险制度具有重要的启示和借鉴意义。中国在建立显性存款保险制度的过程中，应正确处理存款保险机构的独立性以及与金融安全网其他成员的合作性之间的关系；通过强制保险、风险调整费率、限额保险等相关制度设计降低道德风险、避免逆向选择；为银行业金融机构破产制定单独的法律；对消费者加强存款保险制度方面的知识教育；加强与境外存款保险机构及监管机构之间的合作。
［关键词］ 存款保险制度；有效存款保险制度核心原则；金融安全网；金融消费者保护
［Abstract］ The CORE PRINCIPLES FOR EFFECTIVE DEPOSIT INSURANCE SYSTEMS, collaboratively developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the International Association of Deposit Insurers, represents a new development of the international rules of deposit insurance. It provides a useful reference for the countries to assess, establish or reform the deposit insurance system and will be an important enlightenment to China. In the process of the establishment of explicit deposit insurance system, China should correctly handle the relationship between the independence of the deposit insurance institutions and the cooperation with the other members in financial safety net; reduce the risks of moral hazard and avoid adverse selection through compulsory insurance, risk-adjusted premium, limited coverage and other related systems; establish separate insolvency laws for banking institutions; enhance the consumer’s knowledge education of deposit insurance system; improve the cooperation with the foreign deposit insurance agencies and regulators.
［Key words］ deposit insurance system; CORE PRINCIPLES FOR EFFECTIVE DEPOSIT INSURANCE SYSTEMS; financial safety net; financial consumer protection
中资银行海外并购的市场价值分析
张 晶 冯 晶
［摘 要］ 本文选取2007~2011年期间中资银行的四起海外并购案例，运用事件研究法对中资银行开展海外并购的市场价值进行分析。在事件窗口为［-20，20］、估计窗口为［-210，-21］的区间下，发现在并购公告发布的前后41天内并购方的累计超额收益率仅有4天为负值，并且呈明显的上涨趋势，这说明并购公告后，并购方的股价呈显著上涨态势，由此，可以得出并购对市场价值有显著的正面影响的结论，这与中资银行积极开展海外并购的行为相符。这说明，中国证券市场的投资者对中资银行的跨国并购行为及中资银行的发展前景持乐观态度，中资银行应积极开展海外并购。
［关键词］ 中资银行；银行并购；海外并购；市场价值
［Abstract］ This paper selects four cases of the overseas merger and acquisition（M&A） of Chinese banks during 2007~2011 and uses the event-study method to analyse the market value of the overseas M&A of Chinese banks. In the event-window range［-20,20］ and the estimated window range［-210, -21］, it is found that, in the 41 days’ range before and after the announcement of M&A, the ratio of the cumulative exceding return is negative only in 4 days and it significantly shows a rising trend, which means the share price of the acquirer significantly rise after the M&A is announced. Therefore, a conclusion can be drawn that the M&A has significant and positive impacts on market value, which is consistent with the active behavior in the overseas M&A of Chinese banks. This shows that the investors in Chinese stock markets are optimistic about the prospects of cross-border M&A and the development of Chinese banks, and Chinese banks should actively carry out overseas M&A.
［Key words］ Chinese bank; banking M&A; overseas M&A; market value
全球新兴市场风险与中资银行国际化
宋 玮
［摘 要］ 2012年以来，新兴市场经济增长明显放缓，其经济金融面临欧债风险冲击加大、资本流动日益频繁和货币政策困境三大短期风险。新兴市场在中长期发展中还将面临四大挑战和风险，包括发展模式及其未来转型、“赶超效应”边际递减、深陷发达经济体所引发的系统性风险以及贫富差距拉大加大社会和经济风险。中资银行应把握新兴市场内部区域风险特点，规避网络拓展进程中的风险；实施新兴市场之间的区域和国家差异化战略；将服务“走出去”企业作为新兴市场经营机构的业务重点；加大对新兴市场经济体未来发展前景的研究和预测。
［关键词］ 新兴市场经济；短期风险；中长期风险；中资银行国际化；经营策略
［Abstract］ Since 2012, the economic growth in emerging markets is slowing down and the economy and finance face three short-term risks that the impacts of European debt risks increase, capital flow is increasingly frequent and monetary policy is in trouble. In the medium and long-term development, the merging markets will face four major challenges and risks, including the development mode and its future transformation, the marginal diminishing of“catch-up” effect, being greatly impacted by the systemic risks caused by developed economies and the social and economic risks resulting from the widening gap between the rich and the poor. Chinese banks should analyse the characteristics of internal regional risks in emerging markets and avoid the risks in the process of network expansion; implement the regional- and national-differential strategy in the emerging markets; let the service to“going abroad” enterprises become an important business of the operational institutions in the emerging markets; strengthen the study and prediction about the future development prospects of economies in emerging markets.
［Key words］ economy in emerging market; short-term risk; medium- and long-term risk; internationalization of Chinese bank; operational strategy
危机以来欧洲银行业的经营转型
李 楠 王家强
［摘 要］ 自2007年开始，欧洲银行业在全球银行业的地位迅速下滑。为应对客观环境变化和自身危机的挑战，欧洲银行业启动了新一轮的经营发展转型；去杠杆化、去国际化和回归传统或核心业务。欧洲银行业经营转型的内因是危机前自我循环、过度扩张的发展模式不再具有可持续性；外因是宏观经济与金融监管环境发生了深刻转变，以及市场竞争格局的根本性转变。中国银行业应客观认识欧洲银行业回归本土的本质，抓住有利的市场环境，推进国际化进程；注重平衡扩张与收缩、专业化与综合化、杠杆化与去杠杆化的发展战略；适应客户需求与信息技术的变化，围绕服务实体经济进行金融创新。
［关键词］ 欧洲银行业；经营转型；全球1 000家大银行；中国银行业
［Abstract］ Since 2007, the status of European banking sector in global banking sector is deterioated rapidly. To response to the external environmental change and the challenges of its own crisis, the European banking sector starts a new round of operational and developmental transformation, i.e. deleverage, deinternationalization and return to traditional or core business. The internal factor of the operational transformation of European banking sector is that the self-cycle and excessive expansion development model, formed before the crisis, is now no longer sustainable. The external factor is that the macroeconomic and financial regulatory environment has profoundly changed and the market competition has fundamentally transformed. Chinese banking sector should objectively analyse the nature that European banking sector returns to the European mainland, take advantage of the favorable market environment and promote the internationalizational process; attach importance to the balance between expansion and contraction, specialized and comprehensive, leveraging and deleveraging development strategy; adapt to the changes in customer’s demand and information technology and innovate finance around service to real economy.
［Key words］ European banking sector; operational transformation; top 1 000 world banks; Chinese banking sector