影子银行信用创造机制及其启示
王 博 刘永余 (3)
The Credit Creation Mechanism of Shadow Banking and the Enlightenment
WANG Bo LIU Yong-yu (3)
影子银行发展与中国的经济增长
沈 悦 谢坤锋 (9)
The Development of Shadow Banking and the Chinese Economic Growth
SHEN Yue XIE Kun-feng (9)
影子银行的风险与监管改革研究
贺建清 (15)
The Risks and Regulatory Reform of Shadow Banking
HE Jian-qing (15)
影子票据对货币政策实施效果的影响
成善栋 陈宁海 韩敏靓 汪办兴 (22)
The Impacts of Shadow Bill on the Effects of Monetary Policy
CHENG Shan-dong CHEN Ning-hai HAN Min-liang WANG Ban-xing (22)
企业所有权性质与银行信贷可获得性
冯晓雷 冯晓普 王淑侠 (27)
The Properties of Enterprise Ownership and the Availability of Bank Credit
FENG Xiao-lei FENG Xiao-pu WANG Shu-xia (27)
商业银行贷款损失准备、股利分配与盈利波动
张瑞稳 张靖曼 (37)
Loan Loss Provision, Dividend Payout and Profit Fluctuation of Commercial Bank
ZHANG Rui-wen ZHANG Jing-man (37)
住房按揭贷款逾期风险与银行贷款审查
于 瑾 洪 露（43)
The Risks of House-Mortgage Overdue Loans and the Loan Censoring of Banks
YU Jin HONG Lu（43)
商业银行同业客户授信模型研究
程果琦 (50)
A Study of the Credit Extension Model of the Bank Clients of Commercial Banks
CHENG Guo-qi (50)
商业银行履行社会责任与顾客对品牌的忠诚
贾其容 (55)
The Commercial Bank’s Fulfillment of Social Responsibility and the Customer’s Loyalty to Brand
JIA Qi-rong (55)
中国金融保险业的投入产出分析
郑珍远 郑 颖 陈晓玲 (60)
An Analysis of the Input-Output of Chinese Finance and Insurance Industries
ZHENG Zhen-yuan ZHENG Ying CHEN Xiao-ling (60)
地方政府经济职能对银行业发展的作用——基于省际面板数据的实证研究
李义超 王 翔 (66)
The Effects of the Economic Functions of Local Government on the Development of Banking Sector——An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data
LI Yi-chao WANG Xiang (66)
城区支行与县域支行资源配置效率研究
张 勇 李 冬 周 丹 (73)
A Study of the Resource Allocation Efficiency of City Sub-Branches and County Sub-Branches
ZHANG Yong LI Dong ZHOU Dan (73)
影子银行信用创造机制及其启示
王 博 刘永余
［摘 要］ 本文按照传统流动性效应和新型流动性效应两个层级，对影子银行的信用创造机制及其风险进行研究。研究表明，影子银行对于传统流动性的影响不仅体现在当期，而且会通过宏观反馈效应在将来形成信贷扩张或收缩循环。影子银行的新型流动性创造一方面取决于证券化产品的供给，另一方面取决于证券化产品的货币化程度。但由于证券化产品供给和需求的不稳定性，影子银行内部信用经常处于非均衡状态，具有显著的波动性。对此，监管机构应当扩大社会融资规模统计范围，规范传统信贷市场，防止传统信贷的扩张或收缩循环干扰货币政策。
［关键词］ 影子银行；信用创造；证券化；流动性；货币政策
［Abstract］ This paper researches the credit creation mechanism and risks of shadow banking in two aspects, the traditional liquidity effects and the new liquidity effects. The results show that the impacts of shadow banking on the traditional liquidity not only appear currently, but also form the credit expansion or contraction cycle in the future by macro-feedback effects. That the shadow banking creates new liquidity depends on the supply of securitization products on the one hand and on the other hand, depends on the monetization degree of securitization products. Nevertheless, because of the instability of the supply and demand of securitization products, the internal credit of the shadow banking is often in an unbalanced state and notably fluctuates. Therefore, the supervision institution should extend the statistical range of social financing scale, regulate traditional credit market and prevent the traditional credit expansion or contraction cycle from interfering with monetary policy.
［Key words］ shadow banking; credit creation; securitization; liquidity; monetary policy
影子银行发展与中国的经济增长
沈 悦 谢坤锋
［摘 要］ 本文在区分内外部影子银行的基础上，运用宏观资金流量分析法，对中国影子银行整体规模进行系统测度；通过Granger 因果检验方法对影子银行发展与经济增长的关系进行实证检验。结果显示：在当前金融体制下，经济增长与影子银行发展存在单向因果关系，即经济增长为影子银行发展提供了基础，反之并不成立；经济增长与影子银行发展之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。为实现经济增长与影子银行协调发展的目标，本文提出政府部门应理性对待影子银行的发展，适度审慎监管，完善配套金融制度安排，推进利率市场化改革；商业银行则需要强化金融资产服务管理，规范内部影子银行业务发展。
［关键词］ 影子银行；经济增长；金融发展与深化
［Abstract］ Based on the distinction between the inside and the outside shadow banking, this paper uses the macro-cash-flow analysis to measure the overall size of Chinese shadow banking systematically, and empirically examines the relationship between the development of shadow banking and the economic growth by the Granger causality test. The results show that, in the current financial system, there is a unidirectional causality between the economic growth and the development of shadow banking, which means that the economic growth provides the foundation for the development of shadow banking, but the converse is not so; there is a long-term stable and equilibrium relationship between the economic growth and the development of shadow banking. For the coordinated development of economic growth and shadow banking, the paper suggests that the government should rationally treat shadow banking, moderately and prudently supervise shadow banking, improve correlative financial system, promote the liberalization of interest rate; commercial banks need to strengthen the management of financial assets service, regulate the development of the business of internal shadow banking.
［Key words］ shadow banking; economic growth; financial development and deepening
影子银行的风险与监管改革研究
贺建清
［摘 要］ 本文从运行模式、金融工具、金融机构、风险传递等方面对中美影子银行进行比较研究。研究结果表明，现阶段中国影子银行基本上还没进入资产证券化领域，金融工具简单、杠杆率低，但中国影子银行本身隐藏了巨大的风险，给传统商业银行经营带来了负面影响，其信用创造功能削弱了货币政策效果，高利率扭曲了资金价格，危及实体经济。因此，要完善相关法律法规、将影子银行纳入监管范围，加强“一行三会”的相互协作、引入功能监管，提高其信息披露透明度，构建宏观审慎监管与微观审慎监管相结合的监管框架，强化影子银行系统性风险预警与动态监测。
［关键词］ 影子银行；资产证券化；宏观审慎监管；系统性风险
［Abstract］ This paper presents a comparative study of Chinese and Ameirican shadow banking in the aspects of operation mode, financial tools, financial institutions, risk transmission and so on. The results show that, at present, Chinese shadow banking hasn’t basically entered the field of asset securitization, their financial tools are simple and the leverage ratio is low. Neverthless, huge risks hide in Chinese shadow banking which have negative impacts on the operation of traditional commercial banks, and the function of the credit creation of shadow banking weakens the effects of monetary policy, the high interest rates distort fund price and hurt real economy. Therefore, it’s necessary to improve relevant laws and regulations, supervise shadow banking, strengthen the cooperation of PBC, CBRC, CIRC and CSRC, introduce function supervision, increase the transparency of the information disclosure of shadow banking, construct the supervision framework that combines the macro-prudential supervision and the micro-prudential supervision, strengthen the early warning and dynamic monitoring of the systemic risks of shadow banking.
［Key words］ shadow banking; asset securitization; macro-prudential supervision; systemic risk
影子票据对货币政策实施效果的影响
成善栋 陈宁海 韩敏靓 汪办兴
［摘 要］ 本文以15家上市银行为样本，研究发现在信贷总量受到严格约束的情况下，影子票据通过货币乘数效应，将直接推动货币供应量的增长；在2009年上半年以前，影子票据规模有限，对货币供应量影响较小；2011年下半年后，由于监管当局加大票据业务监管力度，影子票据规模显著下降，对货币政策实施效果的干扰影响也显著下降。本文建议如下：完善票据业务统计体系，承兑业务须入表核算，银票应纳入货币统计；创新承兑风险定价机制，消除融资性票据套利因素；引入机构投资者，创建全国一体化票据市场；建立对农信社票据回购业务的长效机制，加强对影子票据的全面监管。
［关键词］ 影子票据；货币政策；票据回购
［Abstract］ This paper selects 15 listed banks as samples to be analysed and finds that, on condition that the total amount of credits is strictly controlled, the shadow bill will directly promote the growth of the money supply by the effects of monetary multiplier. Before the first half of 2009, the size of the shadow bill had been small and its impact on money supply had been a little. After the second half of 2011, because the regulatory authorities strengthen the supervision on the business of shadow bill, the size of the shadow bill decreases significantly and so does its interference impact on the effects of monetary policy. The paper suggests to improve bill business statistic system, the business of the bill acceptance is accounted into table and the bank bills are integrated into the monetary statistics; innovate the risk-pricing mechanism of bill acceptance, eliminate the arbitrage of financing bill; introduce institutional investors and create national-integration bill markets; establish a long-term mechanism for the bill buyback business of rural credit cooperatives and strengthen the comprehensive supervision on the shadow bill.
［Key words］ shadow bill; monetary policy; bill buyback
企业所有权性质与银行信贷可获得性
冯晓雷 冯晓普 王淑侠
［摘 要］ 本文以创业板开立之后所有上市公司的银行借贷公告为样本，研究了基于企业所有权性质的银行信贷选择行为，中国银行业并不存在对民营企业的信贷歧视，民营企业贷款难的问题不应简单归结为国有企业对信贷资源的垄断。中国银行业的市场化运营变得越来越成熟，银行在信贷决策过程中将更加关注企业的还款能力等硬性指标，银行业激烈的市场竞争，加剧了银行业对财务业绩优异的企业客户的争夺，民营企业加强自身盈利能力的建设，除了要改善企业信用环境和增强企业经营能力之外，应加快多层次资本市场的建设，拓宽企业融资渠道，摆脱企业融资对银行贷款的单一依赖。
［关键词］ 所有权性质；银行；信贷歧视；资本市场
［Abstract］ The bank lending announcements of all listed companies after the openning of the GEM as samples, this paper reserarches the choice of bank credit based on the properties of enterprise ownership. The results show that there is no credit discrimination against private enterprises in Chinese banks and the difficulties of private enterprises in loans can’t simply be ascribed to the monopoly of state-owned enterprises to credit resources; the marketization operation of Chinese banks becomes more and more mature and the banks pay more attention to the repayment ability of the enterprise and other important indicators in the process of credit decision; the fierce competition in banking market intensifies the struggle of the bank for enterprises that have outstanding financial performance; private enterprises should strengthen their own profitability; in addition to improving the environment of enterprise credit and strengthening the operational ability of enterprise, it is necessary to speed up the construction of the multi-level capital market steadily, develop enterprise financing channels continuously and get rid of the enterprise relying on the single bank credit for financing.
［Key words］ property of ownership; bank; credit discrimination; capital market
商业银行贷款损失准备、股利分配与盈利波动
张瑞稳 张靖曼
［摘 要］ 本文以中国14家上市商业银行为研究对象，选取2006~2011年的数据为样本，检验中国商业银行会计政策与财务政策信号之间的相互关系。检验结果表明，银行的管理者可能同时利用会计政策（计提贷款损失准备金）和财务政策（股利变化）对外传递信号。当管理者预测到银行将有持续的较高盈利时，他们会提高贷款损失准备金的水平，以向外界传递企业盈利稳定以及前景良好的信号；但当管理者预测到银行的利润将上升时，他们利用贷款损失准备金向外界传递企业良好前景的信号效应并不显著。研究还发现，计提贷款损失准备金信号和股利信号之间存在互补关系。
［关键词］ 商业银行；贷款损失准备金；股利分配；会计政策；财务政策
［Abstract］ In this paper, Chinese 14 listed commercial banks are selected to be studied. The data during 2006~2011as samples, the paper examines the relationship between the signals of accounting policy and the signals of financial policy of Chinese commercial banks. The results show that the managers of the bank may simultaneously use accounting policy (withdrawing the loan loss provision) and financial policy (dividend change) to transmit signals to the outside. When the managers predict that the bank will continuously have high profits, they increase the provision to transmit the signals that the profits of the bank are stable and the prsopects are good, but the effects of the signals are not significant when the managers predict that the profits will rise. It is also found that there is a complementary relationship between the signal of withdrawing loan loss provision and the signal of the dividends.
［Key words］ commercial bank; loan loss provision; dividend payout; accounting policy; financial policy
住房按揭贷款逾期风险与银行贷款审查
于 瑾 洪 露
［摘 要］ 本文对住房按揭贷款逾期风险决定因素及银行贷款审查决定因素进行了比较研究。研究结果表明：借款人性别、婚姻状况、教育程度、年龄、贷款金额、贷款成数、月还款额与月收入之比等因素对住房按揭贷款逾期风险及银行贷款审查是否通过均有显著影响。通过比较发现，男性借款人贷款申请更容易获得通过，但更容易发生逾期；本地借款人贷款申请更容易获得通过，但外地借款人逾期风险更小；长期限贷款逾期风险更小，但期限对银行审查是否通过并无显著影响；高利率贷款逾期风险更小，但银行审查时高利率贷款更不易通过。
［关键词］ 个人住房按揭贷款；贷款逾期风险；贷款审查；商业银行
［Abstract］ This paper presents a comparative study of the determinants of the risks of house-mortgage overdue loans and the loan censoring of banks. The results of the study show that borrower gender, marital status, education level, age, loan amount, loan percentage, the ratio of monthly payments to monthly income and other factors significantly influence the risks of house-mortgage overdue loans and whether the loan will pass the censoring of bank. By the comparison, it is found that the male borrower’s loan application is easier to pass, but his loan is more likely to be overdue; the local borrower’s loan application is easier to pass, but the external borrower is less likely to be overdue; long term loans are less likely to be overdue, but the term does not significantly influence whether the loan will pass the censoring; high-interest-rate loans are less likely to be overdue, but they are less likely to pass the censoring.
［Key words］ personal house-mortgage loan; risk of overdue loan; loan censoring; commercial bank
商业银行同业客户授信模型研究
程果琦
［摘 要］ 本文基于普通机构客户最高授信额度测算值以及前台部门申请额度，构建了更适用于银行同业客户的授信方法与模型。研究表明，商业银行的流动性风险往往先于倒闭风险而出现，其授信测算值对此也更加敏感，因此流动性分析应成为同业授信审查的分析重点。在核定同业最高授信额度的过程中，应重点考虑商业银行速动资产所形成的偿债资金规模及反映流动性风险的核心指标，在授信结构的分析上，要重点考虑长期业务授信额度与客户长期偿债能力的匹配情况，在业务品种的控制上，要结合业务风险特征、管理制度的完备程度以及市场环境的变化情况制定业务总量的限额。
［关键词］ 商业银行；授信；同业客户；流动性；偿债能力；风险管理
［Abstract］ Based on the maximum amount of the credit extension for the common institutional clients and the application amount of the front desk, this paper constructs a model more suitable for the credit extension of the bank clients. The study of the paper shows that the liquidity risks of commercial banks often appear before the collapse risks and the calculation value of the credit extension is more sensitive to the liquidity risks than the collapse risks, so the censoring of bank credit extension should be focused on the liquidity analysis; the check of the maximum amount of the bank credit extension should mainly be focused on the size of the sinking fund formed by quick assets and the core indicators reflecting the liquidity risks of commercial banks; the structure analysis of credit extension should mainly be focused on the match of the credit extension amount of long-term business and the clients’ solvency of long-term debts; the control of the business varieties should consider the characteristics of business risks, the maturity degree of management system and the changes in market environment to determine the quota of the total business.
［Key words］ commercial bank; credit extension; bank client; liquidity; solvency; risk management
商业银行履行社会责任与顾客对品牌的忠诚
贾其容
［摘 要］本文构建了商业银行社会责任履行对品牌忠诚影响的直接与间接传导路径，在此基础上对商业银行社会责任履行与品牌忠诚相关性进行实证分析。结果显示，商业银行社会责任履行对品牌忠诚建立具有正向带动作用，并且商业银行社会责任履行主要通过在消费者心中形成良好的品牌联想进而影响消费者的行为忠诚以及态度忠诚；商业银行社会责任履行对品牌忠诚的直接传导路径虽在实证检验中得到验证，但作用效果并不显著。本文认为，商业银行应通过社会责任履行树立积极的品牌形象，提升品牌价值，以获得长期稳定的利润。
［关键词］ 商业银行；社会责任；品牌忠诚；品牌联想；品牌满意
［Abstract］ This paper constructs the direct and indirect transmission paths that the commercial bank’s fulfillment of social responsibility affects customer’s loyalty to brand and then analyses the relationship between the fulfillment and the loyalty empirically. The results show that the commercial bank’s fulfillment of social responsibility has a positive impetus function to the establishment of customer’s loyalty to brand, moerover, the banks fulfill the social responsibility mainly through forming a good brand association in consumer’s minds and then affecting consumer’s behavior loyalty and attitude loyalty; though the direct transmission path that the fulfillment affects customer’s loyalty to brand is verified in the empirical test, the effect is not significant. The paper argues that commercial banks should establish good brand image through the fulfillment and increase brand value so as to achieve long-term stable profits.
［Key words］ commercial bank; social responsibility; loyalty to brand; brand association; brand satisfaction
中国金融保险业的投入产出分析
郑珍远 郑 颖 陈晓玲
［摘 要］ 本文基于全国2007年42个部门投入产出表，运用投入产出分析技术，从数量依存关系、分配使用状况、产业类型性质、产业关联效应以及生产诱发作用等五个维度对中国金融保险业与国民经济其他产业部门之间的关系进行全面的剖析。研究表明：中国金融保险业与其他产业关联面不广泛；中间分配率较高，主要提供生产性融资；属于高附加值、低带动能力的产业；需求拉动力小，供给推动力大；最终需求对金融保险业的生产诱发不强烈。本文提出政府应大力发展农村金融保险业，加大社会消费性融资，把金融保险业作为重点产业，提供更多的消费金融服务。
［关键词］ 金融保险业；投入产出系数；投入产出分析；生产性融资；消费性融资
［Abstract］ Based on the input-output table of Chinese 42 departments in 2007 and the technique of input-output analysis, this paper comprehensively analyses the relationship between the Chinese finance and insurance industries and the other industries of the national economy in five aspects, the quantitative dependence, the status of distribution and using, the type and property of the industry, the industrial connection effect and the function of inducing production. The results of the paper show that the Chinese finance and insurance industries don’t have a broad relevance to other industries; it has a high rate of intermediate distribution and mainly provide productive financing; it belongs to the industry that has high added value and low driving ability; its force to increase demands is small, but its force to increase supply is great; the final demand doesn’t has a significant function to induce the production of finance and insurance industries. The paper suggests that the government should develop the rural finance and insurance industries, strengthen the social consumption financing, let the finance be a key industry and provide more consumption financce service.
［Key words］ finance and insurance industry; input-output coefficient; analysis of input-output; production financing; consumption financing
地方政府经济职能对银行业发展的作用——基于省际面板数据的实证研究
李义超 王 翔
［摘 要］ 本文基于全国29个省份1995~2009年间的面板数据，就银行业发展中地方政府经济职能的作用分地区进行计量分析。结果表明：地方政府经济职能对银行业发展的作用影响是结构性的，以财政支出衡量的财政政策和以第三产业增加值来衡量的政府产业政策对银行业发展有显著的正向作用；以国有经济投资衡量的政府投资政策、以政府行政管理费支出衡量的政府干预市场的经济职能和以城镇登记失业率衡量的政府缓解失业率的经济职能对银行业发展的影响不显著；以城镇农村人均收入衡量的政府调节收入分配的经济职能对银行业发展有显著的负向作用。
［关键词］ 地方政府；经济职能；银行业发展；财政政策
［Abstract］ Based on the panel data of Chinese 29 provinces 1995~2009, this paper presents a statistical analysis of the effects of the economic functions of local governments in various regions on the development of banking sector. The results show that the effects are structural; the fiscal policy, measured by fiscal expenditure, and the industrial policy of the government, measured by the added value of the third industry, have significant and positive effects on the development of banking sector; the investment policy of the government, measured by the state-owned economic investment, the economic function that the government intervenes markets, measured by the expenditure of the government administration, and the economic function that the government solves the unemployment, measured by the registered urban unemployment rate, have no significant effects on the development of banking sector; the economic function that the government adjusts income and distribution, measured by the per capita income of city and rural area, has significant and negative effects on the development of banking sector.
［Key words］ local government; economic function; development of banking sector; fiscal policy
城区支行与县域支行资源配置效率研究
张 勇 李 冬 周 丹
［摘 要］ 本文采用数据包络分析法（DEA）对城区支行和县域支行资源配置效率进行实证研究。选用中国工商银行江苏省分行营业部辖内8个重点城区支行和4个重点县域支行2009~2011年的数据作为研究样本，员工人数和营业费用作为银行的投入指标，存贷款总额、拨备前利润和中间业务收入作为产出指标，并考虑到银行的赢利性和金融创新程度，对城区支行和县域支行的投入冗余和产出不足状况进行实证分析。结果表明，对于县域支行，进一步增加投入可以提高产出，而对于城区支行，为了减少冗余，必须加快转型发展的步伐。
［关键词］ 商业银行；城区支行；县域支行；资源配置效率；存贷款总额
［Abstract］ By the DEA method, this paper empirically analyses the resource allocation efficiency of city sub-branches and county sub-branches. In the paper, the data of eight major city sub-branches and four major county sub-branches, parts of Jiangsu Branch, ICBC, during 2009~2011 are used as samples , the number of employees and operational expenses are used as the input indicators of banks, total deposits and loans, profit before provisions and the revenue intermediate business are used as output indicators, in addition, the profitability and the degree of financial innovation are considered. The paper presents an empirical analysis of the input redundancy and output deficiency of city sub-branches and county sub-branches. The results show that, for the county sub-branches, the further increase in investment is able to raise the output, and for the city sub-branches, in order to reduce the redundancy, it’s necessary to accelerate the pace of restructuring and development.
［Key words］ commercial bank; city sub-branch; county sub-branch; resource allocation efficiency; total deposit and loan