资本项目开放、金融风险传导与危机临界点预测
李 成 白 璐 (3)
The Opening of Capital Accounts，Transmission of the Financial Risks and the Prediction of the Critical Point of Crisis
LI Cheng BAI Lu (3) 商业银行流动性风险评价
付 强 刘 星 计 方 (9)
The Evaluation of the Liquidity Risks of Commercial Banks
FU Qiang LIU Xing JI Fang (9)
商业银行资金成本变动与流动性水平的动态效应
赵建军 (17)
The Dynamic Effects between the Changes in the Cost of Financial Assets and the Level of the Liquidity of Commercial Bank
ZHAO Jian-jun (17)
商业银行资本对其盈利性的影响
王曼舒 张 斌 (23)
The Impacts of the Capitals of Commercial Bank on Its Profitability
WANG Man-shu ZHANG Bin (23)
中国银行业资本效率的实证分析
郑 鸣 段 梅 陈福生 (32)
An Empirical Analysis of the Capital Efficiency of Chinese Banks
ZHENG Ming DUAN Mei CHEN Fu-sheng (32)
中国银行业市场竞争结构研究
仲伟周 斯煌霏 (41)
A Study of the Structure of the Market Competition in Chinese Banking Sector
ZHONG Wei-zhou SI Huang-fei (41)
跨期消费、利率水平与个人福利效应
雷 鸣 王 军 叶五一 (48)
The Intertemporal Consumption, Level of Interest Rate and the Welfare Effects on Individuals
LEI Ming WANG Jun YE Wu-yi (48)
商业银行个人客户信息保护法律问题研究
张 炜 (53)
A Study of the Legal Issues in the Protection of the Personal Customer’s Information of Commercial Banks
ZHANG Wei (53)
商业银行财富管理业务发展研究
颜 红 蔡红兵 (60)
A Study of the Development of Commercial Bank’s Wealth Management Business
YAN Hong CAI Hong-bing (60)
中国大型商业银行管理部门绩效管理问题分析
陈 晓 黄 旭 (66)
An Analysis of the Performance Management Problems of Chinese Large Commercial Banks’ Management Divisions
CHEN Xiao HUANG Xu (66)
外部冲击、融资约束与企业的现金—现金流敏感性
李 慧 (73)
The External Shocks, Financing Constraints and the Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash of Enterprise
LI Hui (73)
资本项目开放、金融风险传导与危机临界点预测
李 成 白 璐
［摘 要］ 本文研究资本项目开放中的金融风险在国内外的传导渠道，分析资本开放度与金融风险间的量化关系，对可能引发中国金融风险的资本流动临界点进行预测。研究结果表明，冲击中国金融稳定的资本开放度临界值接近50%（48.64%），资本流动总量临界值为35 500亿美元。这说明中国资本项目开放的影响仍处于安全区间，存在进一步开放空间。因此，应坚持循序渐进放开资本项目，掌握人民币资本项目开放的主动权，维持人民币汇率变动的可控性和渐进性；同时，严格资本市场金融监管，特别是国际资本流动的监测和引导，审慎管理宏观金融，实现金融开放的稳定性。
［关键词］ 资本项目开放；金融风险；金融风险传导；金融稳定；人民币汇率
［Abstract］ This paper reseraches the domestic and international transmission channels of the financial risks in the opening of capital accounts, analyses the quantitative relationship between the level of capital opening and the financial risks, and predicts the critical point of the capital flow that may trigger Chinese financial crisis. The results show that the critical point of the capital opening which impacts the Chinese financial stability is close to 50%（48.64%）and the the critical point of the total amount of capital flow is $ 3 550 billion. The results mean that the affects of the opening of Chinese capital accounts are still in the safe range and there is a space to open further. Therefore, it’s necessary to open the capital accounts gradually, grasp the power to open the capital accounts actively and maintain the controllability and progressiveness of the change in RMB exchange rate; meanwhile, to strengthen the financial regulation of the capital market, especially the monitoring and guidance of international capital flow, prudently manage the macro-finance and realize the stability of financial opening.
［Key words］ opening of capital account; financial risk; transmission of financial risk; financial stability; RMB exchange rate
商业银行流动性风险评价
付 强 刘 星 计 方
［摘 要］ 本文在对国内商业银行流动性风险形成机制进行分析的基础上，选取10个流动性监管指标，采用方差最大化组合赋权评价方法，对14家商业银行的流动性风险水平进行了综合评价及排序。结果显示：从总体上看，中国商业银行流动性管理较好，大部分商业银行流动性风险水平处于适中区域。招商银行和华夏银行流动性风险水平偏高，需要加以防范；四大商业银行流动性风险水平适中，经营状况良好；深圳发展银行和浦东发展银行流动性风险水平较低，经营非常稳健。部分商业银行拆入资金比率和贷款存款比率升高等给流动性管理带来了较大难度。
［关键词］ 商业银行；流动性风险；贷款与存款比率；组合赋权
［Abstract］ Based on the analysis of the formation mechanism of the liquidity risks of domestic commercial banks, this paper selects 10 indicators of liquidity supervision and uses the method of the Combination Weighting of Maximizing Deviations to evaluate and rank the levels of the liquidity risks of 14 national commercial banks. The results show that, overall, the liquidity management of Chinese commercial banks is good and the liquidity risks of the most commercial banks are at the moderate level. However, the levels of the liquidity risks of CMBC and HXB are high and need to be controlled; those of the big four commercial banks are moderate and the four banks operate in good condition; the liquidity risks of SDB and SPDB are at low levels and the operation of the banks is very stable. That the ratio of the borrowed capital and the ratio of loan to deposit in some of commercial banks rise makes the liquidity management difficulty.
［Key words］ commercial bank; liquidity risk; ratio of loan to deposit; Combination Weighting
商业银行资金成本变动与流动性水平的动态效应
赵建军
［摘 要］ 本文对商业银行资金成本变动与流动性水平的动态关系进行了实证分析，结果表明：商业银行资金成本变动对流动性水平存在明显的冲击，信贷资金成本变动对银行流动性水平影响较为显著，而由于银行信贷资产比重较高以及市场利率的变动幅度较窄，非信贷资金成本变动对银行流动性水平的影响不明显；银行流动性水平变化对银行资金成本也存在影响，但影响程度小于资金成本变动对流动性水平的影响；在资金成本与流动性水平之间相互影响的动态响应中，存贷比作为反映银行流动性水平的指标其作用不显著。
［关键词］ 商业银行；利率市场化；资金成本；流动性水平；SVAR模型
［Abstract］ This paper empirically analyses the dynamic relationship between the changes in the cost of financial assets and the level of the liquidity of commercial bank. The results show that the changes in the cost of the financial assets of commercial bank obviously impacts the level of liquidity and the influence of the changes in the cost of credit assets on the level of liquidity is relativly obvious; but the influence of the changes in the cost of non-credit assets on the level of liquidity is not obvious because the credit asset ratio is relativly high and the range of the change in market interest rate is relativly narrow; the changes in the level of liquidity has influence on the cost of financial assets as well, but it less than that of the cost of financial assets on the level of liquidity; in the dynamic response to the reciprocal influence between the changes in the cost of financial assets and the level of liquidity, the ratio of loan to deposit, an indicator reflecting the level of the liquidity of a bank, does not show significant effects.
［Key words］ commercial bank; liberalization of interest rate; cost of financial asset; level of liquidity; SVAR model
商业银行资本对其盈利性的影响
王曼舒 张 斌
［摘 要］ 本文基于中国11家上市商业银行2006~2010年的季度数据，运用最小二乘法模型，分析了商业银行资本对其盈利性的影响。通过对中国商业银行两期盈利情况的回归分析得出了如下结论：第一，中国商业银行资本充足率和核心资本充足率均对其盈利性产生正向影响；第二，中国商业银行附属资本充足率和资本资产比率对其盈利性没有显著性的影响。本文提出了如下政策建议：提高银行资本充足率和核心资本充足率，从而提高其盈利性；完善附属资本市场，适当提高附属资本充足率从而提高资本充足率，降低银行的资本成本。
［关键词］ 商业银行；资本；附属资本；盈利；资本充足率；核心资本充足率
［Abstract］ Based on the season’s data of Chinese 11 listed banks during 2006~2010, this paper uses the Least Square method to analyse the impacts of the capitals of commercial bank on its profitability. By the regression analysis of the two period of the profits of Chinese commercial banks, the paper concludes that, first, the capital adequacy ratio and the core capital adequacy ratio of Chinese commercial banks have positive impacts on profitability; second, the subsidiary capital adequacy ratio and the ratio of capital to asset have no significant impact on profitability. The paper suggests to raise the capital adequacy ratio and the core capital adequacy ratio so as to improve the profitability; to improve the capital markets and rasie the subsidiary capital adequacy ratio appropriately so as to raise the capital adequacy ratio and reduce the cost of capitals.
［Key words］ commercial bank; capital; subsidiary capital; profit; capital adequacy ratio; core capital adequacy ratio
中国银行业资本效率的实证分析
郑 鸣 段 梅 陈福生
［摘 要］ 本文采用超效率DEA模型方法，对中国16家上市银行的资本效率进行研究，比较分析各样本银行的投入产出差异和调整值。研究表明：中国银行业的资本运用效率呈稳定波动中的上升趋势。若假定以1.000作为资本有效分界点，那么仅有40%的银行资本有效；假定以0.600作为银行资本“相对有效”的分界线，那么将有91.3%的样本银行的资本“相对有效”。银行资本效率与其他效率不一样，表现出与银行规模、产权体制等因素的相对独立性。另外，中国银行业资本效率不足的原因主要在于银行股本、附属资本、ROA和ROE等方面，这也是中国银行业提高资本效率需要改进的方面。
［关键词］ 上市银行；银行资本；资本效率；ROA；ROE
［Abstract］ This paper researches the capital efficiency of Chinese 16 listed banks by super-efficiency DEA model and comparatively analyses the difference in input and output between sample banks and the adjustments of the banks. The results of the paper indicate that the capital efficiency of the Chinese banks shows a steady fluctuating-upward trend. If 1.000 is selected to be capital-effective marker, only 40% of the banks are capital-effective,and if 0.600 is selected to be capital-relatively-effective marker, 91.3% of the sample banks are capital-relatively-effective. Different from other efficiency, the capital efficiency of bank shows relative independence from the size, ownership, system and other factors of the bank. In addition, the deficiency in the capital efficiency of the Chinese banks is mainly due to the equity, subsidiary capital, ROA and ROE, etc. of the banks; those are the aspects needed to be improved to increase the capital efficiency.
［Key words］ listed bank; capital of bank; capital efficiency; ROA; ROE
中国银行业市场竞争结构研究
仲伟周 斯煌霏
［摘 要］ 本文运用P-R模型测量了中国14家商业银行2000~2011年的竞争程度，结果表明：（1）中国银行业的竞争程度较高并存在波动，没有形成稳定均衡的垄断竞争结构，因此，用高垄断导致高收入来解释金融业的收入并不十分恰当；（2）中国银行业的高集中度和高竞争性并存，这是银行业自身特殊情况导致的，传统的产业结构理论并不适合于中国银行业；（3）传统存贷款业务仍然是中国银行的业务核心，但是其他业务的发展较快，两者之间竞争程度的差距正在逐渐缩小。中国银行业应加快对内开放，消除民间资本的准入壁垒。
［关键词］ 中国银行业；银行业市场结构；垄断竞争；存货款业务
［Abstract］ This paper uses the P-R model to measure the competition of Chinese 14 commercial banks during 2000~2011. The results show:（1）the competition in Chinese banking sector is intense and fluctuating and it has not formed a stable and equilibrium monopoly-competition structure, therefore, the explanation for the income of the banking sector that high monopoly leads to high income is not fully correct；（2）high concentration and high competion coexist in Chinese banking sector, which is due to the features of the banking sector, and the traditional theory of industrial structure is not suitable for Chinese banking sector;（3）the traditional deposit and loan business is still the core business of Chinese banks, but the other business develops rapidly and the difference in competition degree betwwen the both is gradually reducing. Chinese banking sector should speed up the internal opening to eliminate the access barriers to private capitals.
［Key words］ Chinese banking sector; market structure of banking sector; monopoly competition; deposit and loan business
跨期消费、利率水平与个人福利效应
雷 鸣 王 军 叶五一
［摘 要］ 本文基于中国30多年来的数据实证分析中国消费者的行为，表明中国消费者确实存在着跨期消费行为，即证明了中国银行业对个人的跨期消费具有一定的帮助，体现了银行业对个人的福利效应。进一步，本文研究了银行业对个人福利的影响情况，即实证分析国内生产总值、消费指数、存款利率对个人福利的影响。结果显示：银行利率水平对个人福利具有实际的影响，二者具有协整关系和格兰杰因果关系，而且利率水平对个人福利高低总体呈反向关系。自改革开放以来，中国银行业的存款利率总体上呈降低趋势，相应地个人福利效应也在增加。
［关键词］ 中国银行业；个人福利； 跨期消费；个人效用；福利效应
［Abstract］ Based on China’s data more than 30 years, this paper empirically analyses Chinese consumers’ behaviors. The study of the paper shows that Chinese consumers have intertemporal consumption behaviors, which proves that Chinese banking sector gives some help to consumers’ intertemporal consumption behaviors and has welfare effects on individuals. Furthermore, the paper researches the influence of the banking sector on individuals’ welfare, namely empirically analysing the influence of GDP, consumption index, interest rate of deposit on individuals’ welfare. The results show that the interest rates of banks really affect the individuals’ welfare, there are cointegration relationship and granger causality between the both, and the level of interest rate has an inverse relationship with the level of the individuals’ welfare. The interest rates of the deposit of Chinese banks has shown a declinng trend on the whole since the reform and opening-up, accordingly, the individuals’ welfare has been increasing.
［Key words］ Chinese banking sector; individual’s welfare; intertemporal consumption; individual’s utility; welfare effect
商业银行个人客户信息保护法律问题研究
张 炜
［摘 要］ 商业银行作为金融服务机构，在向客户提供金融服务的同时，亦承担着保护客户信息的义务和责任。本文在对国外银行个人客户信息保护立法与实践考察的基础上，分析了我国商业银行个人客户信息保护法律问题。目前我国相关的法律制度、体制和机制等尚不健全，隐私权保护的法治理念尚不成熟，个人信息保护法律制度建设相对滞后，银行内部客户信息保护机制尚不完善，在客户信息保护方面存在明显的操作风险问题。因此，需要进一步加强和改进，包括增强全社会个人信息安全意识；加快个人信息保护立法工作步伐；建立健全商业银行客户信息保护机制等。
［关键词］ 商业银行；金融服务；客户信息；信息保护；法律
［Abstract］ As financial service institutions, commercial banks bear the obligations and responsibilities to protect customers’ information when they provide financial services to the customers. Based on the survey of the foreign banks’ legislation and practice of the protection of personal customer’s information, this paper analyses the legal issues in the protection of the personal customer’s information of Chinese commercial banks. At present, the relevant legal system, organizational system and mechanism in China are still not sound, the legal concept of privacy protection has not completely formed, the legal system of personal information protection relatively lags behind, the bank’s internal protection mechanism of customer’s information is not perfect, and there are obvious operational risk problems in the protection of personal customer’s information. Therefore, commercial banks should further make some strengthenings and improvements, including strengthening the information security concept of the whole society, speeding up the legislation of personal information protection; establishing and improving the commercial bank’s protection mechanism of personal customer’s information.
［Key words］ commercial bank; financial service; customer information; information protection; law
商业银行财富管理业务发展研究
颜 红 蔡红兵
［摘 要］ 本文在梳理我国商业银行财富管理业务发展的环境和现状的基础上，针对工行江苏分行财富管理业务发展现状进行分析，并运用回归模型对影响财富管理业务发展的因素进行了实证研究。实证结果表明：财富管理业务的发展与商业银行自身微观因素和外部宏观经济因素相关，其中商业银行的理财能力、人员队伍等微观因素对财富管理业务发展尤其重要。进而提出以下发展策略：制定科学的考核政策，加强客户信息系统建设，完善财富客户服务体系，创新客户营销拓展模式，加快客户服务渠道建设，加快人员队伍建设，加大其他资源投入。
［关键词］ 商业银行；财富管理；客户服务
［Abstract］ Based on the survey of the environment and status quo of the development of Chinese commercial bank’s wealth management business, this paper analyses the status quo of the development of the wealth management business of ICBC Jiangsu Branch and empirically researches the factors to affect the development by regression model. The results show that the development of the wealth management business relates to the bank’s own microscopic factors and the external macroeconomic factors, and the bank’s wealth management ability, team and other microscopic factors are especially important. Then the paper put forward the following development strategies: making scientific evaluation policies; improving the service system of wealth customers; innovating the development mode of customer marketing; accelerating the construction of customer service channel and team; increasing the putting-in of other resources.
［Key words］ commercial bank; wealth management; customer service
中国大型商业银行管理部门绩效管理问题分析
陈 晓 黄 旭
［摘 要］ 绩效管理是实现组织战略的有效管理工具。许多大型银行在逐渐推进由以行政化绩效考核为主的模式向以价值创造为基本依据的全流程绩效管理模式的转变。本文在研究中国大型商业银行管理部门绩效管理问题的基础上，分析美国银行、花旗银行、汇丰银行、德意志银行等大型国际金融集团案例，为进一步提升管理部门绩效管理水平提供借鉴：管理部门应充分分解战略目标，促进对前台经营部门的支持；建立完善的闭环式绩效管理，强调绩效监督、绩效沟通与反馈环节的应用；根据业务关系精心选择评价者；明确规定管理部门绩效强制分布及应用；建立以绩效为中心的管理文化。
［关键词］ 中国大型商业银行；国际金融集团；管理部门；绩效管理；管理文化
［Abstract］ Performance management is an effective management tool to realize organizational strategy. Many large commercial banks are gradually promoting the mode transformation from the mode mainly relying on administration performance evaluation to the whole-process-performance-management mode mainly relying on value creation. This paper researches the performance management problems of Chinese large commercial banks’ management divisions and analyse the cases of the large international financial groups, such as Bank of American, Citi, Deutsche Bank and HSBC, etc., to provide the following references for the domestic large commercial banks to improve the performance management of management divisions: the management divisions should fully decompose strategic target and promote the supports for front counters, the operational divisions; establish the perfect closed-loop performance management to strengthen the monitoring, communication of performance and the application of feedback loop; carefully choose evaluators according to business relationship; specify the performance of management divisions to be forcibly distributed and applied; establish a management culture centering performance.
［Key words］ Chinese large commercial bank; international financial group; management division; performance management; management culture
外部冲击、融资约束与企业的现金—现金流敏感性
李 慧
［摘 要］ 本文以2000~2011年中国上市公司为样本，采用现金—现金流敏感性检验融资约束假说对我国上市公司的适用性，在此基础上研究外部冲击对不同融资约束企业现金持有规模的影响。研究表明，融资约束企业具有正的现金—现金流敏感性，且敏感性系数在受到金融危机冲击后大幅提高；非融资约束企业在金融危机前后都没有显著的现金—现金流敏感性。货币政策对两类企业的现金持有规模均有影响，货币政策主要通过影响长期贷款在总资产中的占比变化进而影响现金的持有，即仅在长期贷款占比提高时，企业的现金持有水平会大幅降低。
［关键词］ 外部冲击；融资约束；现金—现金流敏感性；金融危机；货币政策
［Abstract］ The Chinese listed companies during 2000~2011 as samples, this paper applies the cash flow sensitivity of cash to examine the applicability of financing constraints hypothesis for the Chinese listed companies, and based on the examination, researches the influence of external shocks on the cash holding sizes of the enterprises in different financing constraints. The study of the paper shows that the financing-constraint enterprise has a positive cash flow sensitivity of cash and the sensitivity coefficient increases greatly after the shock of the financial crisis; the non-financing-constraint enterprise has no obvious cash flow sensitivity of cash before or after the financial crisis. Monetary policies impact the cash holding sizes of the two kinds of enterprises. The monetary policies affect the cash holdings mainly by affecting the ratio of long-term loans to total assets, which means that the cash holdings of the enterprise will greatly decrease only when the ratio of the long-term loans rises.
［Key words］ external shock; financing constraint; cash flow sensitivity of cash; financial crisis; monetary policy