农户信贷需求的影响因素——基于农户调查的实证研究
胡金焱 张 博 (3)
The Factors to Influence Rural Household's Demand for Credits——An Empirical Study Based on the Survey of Rural Households
HU Jin-yan ZHANG Bo (3)
农村中小企业融资需求与信贷可获性
李 丹 张 兵 胡雪枝 (10)
Rural SMEs' Demand for Financing and Loan Availability
LI Dan ZHANG Bing HU Xue-zhi (10)
农村金融排斥的区域差异与影响因素——理论分析与实证检验
鲁 强 (17)
The Regional Difference and Factors of Rural Financial Exclusion——A Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test
LU Qiang (17)
“双倍增”计划、金融发展与商业银行机遇
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组 (28)
"Two Double-Increase" Program, Financial Development and the Opportunities for Commercial Banks
The Study Group of Urban Finance Research Institute, ICBC (28)
金融结构调整对发达经济体和新兴经济体的差异性影响
李永刚 (36)
The Different Influence of the Financial Restructuring on Developed Economies and Emerging Economies
LI Yong-gang (36)
市场势力、收入多元化与商业银行绩效
冉光和 肖 渝 (43)
Market Power, Revenue Diversification and the Performance of Commercial Bank
RAN Guang-he XIAO Yu (43)
信用评级与银行风险管理
张 奕 艾春荣 洪占卿 (50)
The Credit Rating and the Risk Management of Banks
ZHANG Yi AI Chun-rong HONG Zhan-qing (50)
住房按揭贷款违约损失率预测模型研究
洪 露 (60)
A Study of Loss-Given-Default Prediction Model for Residential Mortgage Loan
HONG Lu (60)
大型商业银行贷款定价问题研究
郭 凯 张笑梅 陈 诚 (67)
A Study of the Loan Pricing of Large Commercial Banks
GUO Kai ZHANG Xiao-mei CHEN Cheng (67)
商业银行客户流失的影响因素——基于生存分析方法的研究
王未卿 姚 娆 刘 澄 (73)
The Factors to Influence the Customer Running-Off of Commercial Banks——A Study Based on Survival Analysis Method
WANG Wei-qing YAO Rao LIU Cheng (73)
农户信贷需求的影响因素——基于农户调查的实证研究
胡金焱 张 博
［摘 要］ 本文在对山东省济南市周边县、镇213户农户家庭情况、信贷需求及资金来源渠道等调查数据进行分析的基础上，建立异方差probit模型对农户信贷需求、信贷资金获得渠道与影响因素进行实证研究。研究结果表明：常住人口数、债务水平的提高倾向于提高农户的信贷需求，收入来源、债务水平会对农户从正规金融机构获取信贷起到积极的作用，债务水平越高越需要非正规渠道资金；而农户户主年龄、家庭最高受教育程度、所处区位及居住村是否设有正规金融机构网点等因素对农户信贷需求及其资金来源渠道影响不明显。
［关键词］ 农户信贷需求；农户收入；债务水平；正规金融机构；新农村建设
［Abstract］ Based on the survey of 213 rural households’ family status, demand for credits and fund sources in counties and towns surrounding Jinan City, Shandong Province, this paper constructs a heteroscedasticity-probit-model for an empirical research on rural household’s demand for credits, channels to obtain funds and the factors to influence the demand and the channels. The results show that the number of family members and the increase in debt will raise rural household’s demand for credits; income source and debt level positively influence rural household’s obtaining credit from formal financial institutions, the higher the debt level is, the more the non-formal-channel fund is needed; the master’s age of rural household, the highest education level of family members, residential region and formal network of financial institution in village, etc. have no significant influence on the demand and the fund source.
［Key words］ rural household’s demand for credit; rural household’s income; debt level; formal financial institution; new rural construction
农村中小企业融资需求与信贷可获性
李 丹 张 兵 胡雪枝
［摘 要］ 本文基于江苏省264家中小企业的调查数据，从企业自身特征、企业主特征、银企关系、市场因素实证分析影响不同类型中小企业信贷可得性的因素。结果表明：没有融资需求的企业与获得贷款企业在盈利能力、杠杆率以及企业主从事该行业的时间等方面有很大的相似之处；影响企业申请贷款的关键因素是企业从事的行业类型、银企关系以及政府支持政策；申请贷款的企业杠杆率越高，其获得贷款的可能性越低，与企业有联系的银行数目越多，企业与银行联系的频率越高，企业的信贷可得性越高。此外，小银行是中小企业融资的主要渠道，小银行优势得以证明。
［关键词］ 江苏；中小企业；小银行；融资；信贷可获性；杠杆率
［Abstract］Based on the data of 264 small and medium-sized enterprises in Jiangsu Province, this paper empirically analyses the factors to influence the loan availability of different type of SMEs according to enterprise characteristics, enterprise owner’s characteristics, bank-enterprise relationship and market factors. The results show that the enterprises which has no demands for financing are very similar to those that have obtained loans in profitability, leverage ratio, owner’s occupation time in the industry in which he works, etc. The key factors to influence enterprises to apply for loan are the industry type of enterprise, bank-enterprise relationship and government’s support policies. The more the leverage ratio of the enterprise that apply for loan, the smaller the loan availability; the bigger the number of banks with which the enterprise has relationship and the greater the frequency of the enterprise contacts banks, the higher the loan availability. In addition, small banks are main channels for SME’s financing, so the superiority of small bank is proved.
［Key words］ Jiangsu; SME; small bank; financing; loan availability; leverage ratio
农村金融排斥的区域差异与影响因素——理论分析与实证检验
鲁 强
［摘 要］ 本文从理论上分析中国农村金融排斥的内在机理，提出农村金融排斥六维度假设，并构建农村金融排斥模型（EXCLUDED）和农村金融排斥程度的测算指标。农村金融市场是一个多维复杂的体系，影响中国农村金融排斥的最主要因素为价格排斥和营销排斥，且政府财政支农、调控利率等干预手段在省域范围内存在失灵，农村金融排斥程度在省域范围以及地域范围内差异较大，同时农村金融六个维度排斥程度之间的差异也相当大。解决农村金融市场排斥问题需打“金融组合拳”，促进中国各省市农村经济的稳定与协调发展，改善农村的产业结构和发展模式，提高农村金融机构的发展水平。
［关键词］ 农村金融排斥；农村金融市场；农村产业结构；农村金融机构
［Abstract］ This paper is a theoretical analysis of the internal mechanism of Chinese rural financial exclusion. The paper proposes a six-dimension hypothesis of rural financial exclusion and constructes a model and indexes to measure the rural financial exclusion. The empirical results show that rural financial market is a multi-dimensional and complex system; the most important factors to influence China’s rural financial exclusion are price exclusion and marketing exclusion; intervention measures, such as governmental financial support for agriculture, interest rate regulation, etc., may be failed in provincial region; the degree of rural financial exclusion varies greatly between provinces or districts, so do the degrees of rural financial exclusion in six dimensions. The financial combination is needed to solve the problem of rural financial exclusion: to promote the stability and coordinate development of provincial economy, reform the industrial structure and developmental mode in rural areas, and improve the developmental level of rural financial institutions.
［Key words］ rural financial exclusion; rural financial market; rural industrial structure; rural financial institution
“双倍增”计划、金融发展与商业银行机遇
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组
［摘 要］ 简单估算，2011~2020年GDP和居民人均收入年均增速只要达到7.2%，即可实现十八大报告提出的“双倍增”目标。在外部经济环境不再继续恶化的前提下，预计在2012~2015年，GDP增速在7%~9%波动；2016~2020年，GDP增速将保持在6%~7%。居民人均收入保持7%左右的增长率也是有理论根据的。通过测算，至2020年国内金融机构人民币信贷投放余额将在148万亿元左右，人民币储蓄存款余额将在62.1万亿元左右。未来商业银行不仅在传统存贷业务上有较大发展空间，还将迎来金融资产服务业务和消费金融业务等新型金融业务的重要发展机遇期。
［关键词］ “双倍增”计划；金融发展；居民收入；商业银行；新型金融业务
［Abstract］ In a simple estimate, the “two double-increase” goal will be achieved as long as the average annual growth rates of China’s GDP and per capita income reach 7.2%. If the external economic environment does not deteriorate further, it’s estimated that the growth rate of China’s GDP during 2012~2015 will fluctuate between 7% and 9%, and continues to be 6%~7% during 2016~2020. The 7% growth rate of per capita income is estimated on basis of theories. It has been calculated that the RMB loan balance of domestic financial institutions will be about 148 trillion yuan, and the balance of RMB deposits will be about 62.1 trillion yuan in 2020. In the future, commercial banks will not only have a large space to develop traditonal deposit and loan business, but also have important opportunities to develop financial asset service, consumer finance and other new financial business.
［Key words］ “two double-increase” program; financial development; resident’s income; commercial bank; new financial business
金融结构调整对发达经济体和新兴经济体的差异性影响
李永刚
［摘 要］ 本文以33个发达经济体、25个新兴经济体1998～2011年的数据为对象，采用固定效应模型，研究金融结构调整对发达经济体和新兴经济体的差异性影响。研究发现，金融结构调整既可能促进经济增长、抑制经济波动、减轻金融压力，也可能会阻碍经济增长、引发经济波动、增加金融压力。基于此，本文建议各国应通过控制外资银行数量和银行外汇资产规模，保持一定水平的存贷款利差和一定程度的银行垄断，确保流动资产规模稳定和公司普通股规模，严格控制其他盈利资产规模和其他计息负债规模等措施来保证金融结构调整的正向效应。
［关键词］ 发达经济体；新兴经济体；金融结构；经济增长；经济波动；金融压力
［Abstract］ Based on the data of 33 developed economies and 25 emerging economies during 1998~2011, this paper uses fixed effect model to research the different influence of the financial restructuring on developed economies and emerging economies. It is found that the financial restructuring can not only promote economic growth, inhibit economic fluctuation, reduce financial pressure, but also hinder economic growth, lead to economic fluctuation, increase financial pressure. Therefore, it is recommended that all countries control the amount of foreign banks and the foreign exchange asset size of banks, maintain a certain spread between deposit and loan interest rates and a certain degree of banking monopoly, ensure the stability of current assets size and the size of company’s common shares, strictly control the sizes of other earning assets and other interest-bearing liabilities, so as to ensure the positive effects of financial restructuring.
［Key words］ developed economies; emerging economies; financial structure; economic growth; economic fluctuation; financial stress
市场势力、收入多元化与商业银行绩效
冉光和 肖 渝
［摘 要］ 本文利用中国商业银行2003～2011年的相关数据，考察商业银行市场势力和收入多元化与银行绩效水平的关系。结果表明，市场势力对商业银行绩效有显著正效应，高市场势力带来的溢价提高了商业银行的经济效益，这在一定程度上支持相对市场力量假说；商业银行在严格控制营业费用的前提下，提高收入多元化程度对商业银行的绩效水平有积极促进作用。中国银行监管机构需要逐步放松行政管制，使银行将收入多元化纳入银行长远发展的经营战略中，以提高其绩效水平；同时要高度重视并合理控制商业银行收入多元化风险。
［关键词］ 商业银行；市场势力；收入多元化；经营绩效
［Abstract］ Based on the relevant data of Chinese commercial banks during 2003~2011, this paper analyses the relationship between market power or revenue diversification and performance of banks. The results of the paper show that market power has significant and positive effects on the performance of commercial banks, and the premium from big market power has improved the economic efficiency of commercial banks, which supports the "relative market power" hypothesis to some extent; under the premise to control operational expenses strictly, the increase in the level of revenue diversification of banks will positively improve their performance. China’s banking regulators need to release administrative regulation gradually, and promote revenue diversification to be a part of the long-term business strategies of banks so as to improve their performance; meanwhile, commercial banks should be vigilant to and control the risks of revenue diversification.
［Key words］ commercial bank; market power; revenue diversification; operational performance
信用评级与银行风险管理
张 奕 艾春荣 洪占卿
［摘 要］ 本文利用中国本土信用评级机构的评级数据，研究信用评级对债券市场的影响，以及国内银行如何运用信用评级进行风险管理。结果发现，债券评级和主体评级均对债券市场有显著影响，但债券评级比主体评级作用更显著，后者对前者起补充作用，当债券评级不足以刻画债券质量时，主体评级作用更加凸显；另外，信用评级在发行市场和交易市场中的作用有所不同：由于投资者吸收了债券发行后市场的新信息而减少了对信用评级的依赖，因而在交易市场中信用评级的影响力低于发行市场。因此，银行应全面利用各种评级信息，并且结合被评级资产所处市场来进行风险管理。
［关键词］ 信用评级；风险管理；商业银行；债券市场；信用溢价
［Abstract］ Based on the data of China’s domestic credit rating agencies, this paper researches the influence of credit rating on bond markets, and how domestic banks use credit rating to manage risks. It is found that both bond rating and issuer rating significantly impact bond market, but bond rating has a more significant influence, and the issuer rating has a complementary function to bond rating; when the bond rating can not evaluate the quality of bonds, the function of issuer rating is more prominent; in addition, the function of credit rating in issue market is different from that in trade market, and the influence of credit rating in trade market is smaller than that in issue market because investors absorb the new information of market after the bonds are issued and reduce their reliance on credit rating. Therefore, banks should make full use of various rating information, and combine the market in which the bonds are traded to manage risks.
［Key words］ credit rating; risk management; commercial bank; bond market; credit premium
住房按揭贷款违约损失率预测模型研究
洪 露
［摘 要］ 本文用log-log回归法、logistic回归法、分类及回归树法分别构建住房按揭贷款违约损失率预测模型，并将这三类模型及历史数据平均法模型对样本内、外数据的预测效果进行比较分析。研究结果表明：针对住房按揭贷款违约损失率，logistic回归方法预测效果最好，分类及回归树方法其次，而log-log回归方法预测误差最大。模型回归结果还表明，贷款价值比越高，违约损失率越大；贷款年龄越大，违约损失率越小；信用按揭贷款违约损失率显著高于抵押贷款；华东、华南和西南地区的违约损失率比华北地区要小；面积大的房屋贷款违约损失率更大。
［关键词］ 住房按揭贷款；违约损失率；预测模型；贷款价值比
［Abstract］This paper uses log-log regression, logistic regression, classification and regression tree method to construct loss-given-default (LGD) prediction models for residential mortgage loan, and compares the prediction results of the three kinds of model as well as average-historical-data model based on sample data and non-sample data. The results show that, as far as the LGD of residential mortgage loan is concerned, the prediction results of logistic regression is the best, followed by those of classification and regression tree method, and the log-log regression has the biggest prediction errors. In addition, the results of the regressions show that the more the ratio of loan to value is, the greater the LGD is; the longer the loan term is, the smaller the LGD is; the LGD of credit loan is significantly higher than that of mortgage loan; the LGDs in eastern, southern and southwest China are smaller than that in northern China; the LGD of the loan for big house is larger than that of small house.
［Key words］ residential mortgage loan; LGD; prediction model; ratio of loan to value
大型商业银行贷款定价问题研究
郭 凯 张笑梅 陈 诚
［摘 要］ 本文以中国四家大型商业银行的财务数据为基础，建立中国大型商业银行贷款定价理论模型，研究贷款定价的影响因素。研究发现，中国大型商业银行贷款定价市场符合寡头垄断模型，贷款收息率与存款付息率和GDP增长率之间存在显著的线性关系，并受到各商业银行经营管理水平以及市场风险度的影响；融资成本对于贷款价格的确定具有重要影响；银行的经营水平和效率直接决定了价格的竞争力和银行可能获得的收益；在整个市场中，贷款风险溢价（模型中的常数项）因素对整个银行业来说基本相同。商业银行应通过提高效率和经营管理水平来提高定价水平。
［关键词］ 大型商业银行；资产负债管理；寡头垄断；贷款定价
［Abstract］ Based on the financial data of Chinese four large commercial banks, this paper builds a theoretical model for the loan pricing of Chinese large commercial banks and analyses the factors to influence loan pricing. It is found that the loan pricing market of Chinese large commercial banks is consistent with the oligopoly model, the interest rates of loans and deposits have significant and linear relationships with GDP growth, and are influenced by the operational performance of commercial banks and market risks; financing costs have important impacts on determining loan price; the operational performance and efficiency of banks directly determine the price competitiveness and possible earnings of banks. In the whole market, the factor of credit risk premium is basically the same to all banks. The commercial banks should improve efficiency and management to increase the level of pricing.
［Key words］ large commercial bank; management of asset and liability; oligopoly; loan pricing
商业银行客户流失的影响因素——基于生存分析方法的研究
王未卿 姚 娆 刘 澄
［摘 要］ 本文基于生存分析方法，以某商业银行一年内客户流失数据为研究样本，对筛选出的12个可能对客户流失产生重要影响的预测变量进行分析，结果表明：7个因素对银行客户流失有显著影响，其中每月平均存现、每月平均消费、最高存款余额、账户类型、每月平均交易、对促销反应与客户流失负相关， 交易最大间隔与客户流失正相关，意味着客户主动进行的两笔交易时间间隔越长，客户的流失可能越大。银行应密切关注这些预测因素的变化，避免造成损失。银行可以应用Cox模型预测在未来某时点的客户流失情况，提前采取有效的应对措施。
［关键词］ 商业银行；客户流失；客户存款；生存分析
［Abstract］ Based on the survival analysis method, this paper uses the customer running-off data of a commercial bank in a year as samples and selects 12 prediction variables for univariate analysis and multivariate analysis. The results showed that 7 factors have significant influence on the customer running-off of commercial bank, and average monthly deposit, average monthly consumption, maximum deposit balance, account type, average monthly transaction and response to sale promotion correlate negatively with customer running-off; the maximum transaction interval correlate positively with customer running-off, which means that the longer the interval between customer’s two initiative transactions is, the greater the possibility of customer running-off is. Banks should pay close attention to the changes in these prediction factors to avoid losses and can apply the Cox model to predict the customer running-off at some point in the future so as to take effective measures in advance.
［Key words］ commercial bank; customer running-off; customer deposit; survival analysis