P2P网络借贷成功率影响因素分析——以拍拍贷为例
温小霓 武小娟 (3)
An Analysis of the Factors to Influence Successful Borrowing Rate in P2P Network Lending——A Case Study of the Paipai Lending
WEN Xiao-ni WU Xiao-juan (3)
P2P网络借贷中社会资本对借款者违约风险的影响——以Prosper为例
缪莲英 陈金龙美 (9)
The Influence of Social Capitals on Borrower’s Default Risk in P2P Network Lending——A Case Study of the Prosper
MIU Lian-ying CHEN Jin-long (9)
P2P网络信贷模式出借行为分析——基于说服的双过程模型
刘志明 (16)
An Analysis of the Lending Behavior in P2P Network Credit——Based on the Dual Persuasion Model
LIU Zhi-ming (16)
国际P2P行业发展趋势与商业银行未来发展
韩斯玥 黄 旭 贺本岚 (23)
The Trends in International P2P Industry and the Future Development of Commercial Banks
HAN Si-yue HUANG Xu HE Ben-lan (23)
商业银行知识产权保护问题研究
张 炜 (28)
A Study of the Protection of Commercial Bank’s Intellectual Property
ZHANG Wei (28)
商业银行新型监督体系的运行流程及系统架构设计
牛 刚 (39)
The Design of the Operational Process and Systemic Structure of Commercial Bank’s New Monitoring Systems
NIU Gang (39)
境内银行间外汇市场人民币汇率定价权研究
夏园园 宋晓玲 (45)
A Study of the Pricing Power of RMB Exchange Rate in Domestic Interbank Foreign Exchange Market
XIA Yuan-yuan Song Xiao-ling (45)
NIM及其变动趋势与中国银行业盈利水平
金 昱 (53)
NIM, Its Trends and the Profitability of Chinese Banking Sector
JIN Yu (53)
银行持股行为对风险与绩效的影响
林煜恩 池祥萱 李 乐 (59)
The Influence of Bank’s Stock Holdings on Its Risks and Performance
LIN Yu-en CHI Xiang-xuan LI Le (59)
中国商业银行声誉风险经济资本的度量
胡 敏 韩俊莹 (67)
The Measurement of the Economic Capitals for Reputation Risks of Chinese Commercial Banks
HU Min HAN Jun-ying (67)
基于FDIC实践的中国上市银行存款保险费率测算
敬志勇 王周伟 (73)
The Estimate of Deposit Insurance Rates of Chinese Listed Banks Based on FDIC’s Practice
ING Zhi-yong WANG Zhou-wei (73)
P2P网络借贷成功率影响因素分析——以拍拍贷为例
温小霓 武小娟
［摘 要］ 本文以中国最大的P2P网络借贷网站拍拍贷为例，采用二元logistic回归模型建立网络借贷模型，研究影响借贷成功率的因素，并进行蒙特卡洛模拟。研究结果表明：借款利率、借款人历史失败次数对借款成功率有负的影响，而借款金额、借款人历史成功次数、信用积分、审核项目数对借款结果有正的影响。同时，借款人的性别、住宅情况也对借款结果有影响。在金融市场化改革过程中，与传统金融相比，P2P网络借贷除应重视模式创新之外，更要充分运用大数据的优势进行有效的信用评估和风险评估，从而为征信体系建设和借贷双方服务提供有利条件。
［关键词］ P2P网络借贷；借款成功率；拍拍贷；互联网金融
［Abstract］ Paipai Lending, the largest P2P network lending website in China, is used as a sample in this paper. Based on the Binary Logistic Regression model, the paper presents a network lending model for the research of factors to influence successful borrowing rate, and makes a Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the paper show that the interest rate of borrowing and the times of borrower’s failure borrowing in the past negatively influence successful borrowing rate, while the amount of borrowing, times of borrower’s successful borrowing in the past, credit scores, number of censored items positively influence successful borrowing rate. In addition, borrower’s gender and residential status also influence successful borrowing rate. In the process of financial market-oriented reform, the P2P network lending, compared with conventional finance, should innovate its own mode, but what is the more important is to make full use of the advantages of big data for effective credit evaluation and risk assessment, so as to help the construction of credit system and the lender-borrower service.
［Key words］ P2P network lending; successful borrowing rate; Paipai Lending; internet finance
P2P网络借贷中社会资本对借款者违约风险的影响——以Prosper为例
缪莲英 陈金龙
［摘 要］ 本文将推荐信任与小组关系、朋友关系共同作为社会资本的替代变量，分析其对借款者违约风险的制约机制，同时利用Prosper网络借贷平台的数据，实证检验社会资本对借款者违约风险的影响。研究结果表明，在P2P网络借贷中，社会资本的存在能够降低借款者违约风险，无论是通过加入小组，还是增加投资者中朋友的个数或借款列表被推荐的次数，都可以提高借款者的社会资本，充分发挥社会资本的甄别、监督以及社会惩罚作用，降低违约风险发生的可能性。P2P网络借贷平台可以通过增加借款者社会资本的机制设计，降低违约风险，最终降低行业整体的违约率。
［关键词］ P2P网络借贷；社会资本；制约机制；违约风险
［Abstract］This paper uses recommendation trust and group relationship as the alternative variables of social capitals to analyse the mechanism that social capitals constrain borrower’s default risk, and empirically examines the influence of social capitals on borrower’s default risk based on the data of the Prosper network lending platform. The results of the paper show that the social capitals can reduce borrower’s default risk in P2P network lending. Joining the group and increasing the number of friends among investors or the recommended times of borrowing list can increase borrower’s social capitals, and are conducive to the exertion of the selective, supervisory and punitive functions of social capitals, so as to reduce the possibility of default risk. P2P network lending platform can reduce default risk, and ultimately reduce the overall default rate of network lending industry by mechanism design to increase borrower’s social capitals.
［Key words］ P2P networks lending; social capital; constraining mechanism; default risk
P2P网络信贷模式出借行为分析——基于说服的双过程模型
刘志明
［摘 要］ 本文基于说服的双过程模型，对网络小额信贷中网民出借行为进行分析建模，通过Kiva平台中的信贷项目对模型进行实证分析。结果表明，信息的启发式线索以及系统式线索同时影响了网民的出借行为。在启发式线索中，审贷机构的专业性对出借行为具有正面的影响，专业性更高的审贷机构所发布的信贷项目更容易得到网民的捐助；而在系统式线索中，呼吁信息的信息量和所包含的情感强度都显著影响网民的出借行为，信息量越大、所包含情感强度越高的呼吁信息越容易得到网民的捐助。本文的研究也验证了说服双过程模型在网络社区中的适用性。
［关键词］ 网络信贷；出借行为；说服双过程模型；启发式线索；系统式线索
［Abstract］ Based on the Dual Persuasion model, this paper analyses internet user’s lending behavior and constructs a model that is verified by the credit items from the Kiva platform. The results of the paper show that both heuristic cues and systematic cues influence the internet user’s lending behavior. In heuristic cues, the expertise of censoring organization has positive effects on the lending behavior, and the credit items issued by the more professional censoring organization will receive internet user’s donation more easily. In systematic cues, the information amount and sentiment strength of appealing message are significantly influence the lending behavior. The greater the information amount and sentiment of the message are, the more easily it gains internet user’s donation. The research of the paper also verifies the applicability of dual persuasion model in network community.
［Key words］ network credit; lending behavior; dual persuasion model; heuristic cue; systematic cue
“国际P2P行业发展趋势与商业银行未来发展
韩斯玥 黄 旭 贺本岚
［摘 要］ 2005年全球首家P2P网络借贷平台Zopa在英国成立以来，P2P这一新型借贷模式迅速获得了市场认可。国际P2P平台未来预计将向着金融产品日趋专业性和复杂化的方向发展，资产证券化水平将会逐渐提高，风险定价能力提升，并为投资者提供更加专业的金融服务。目前，P2P平台的信贷规模仍处于较低水平阶段，对其风险定价的专业性和风险及成本管理的考验还未到来，商业银行在P2P平台冲击下消亡的可能性微乎其微。P2P平台与商业银行未来会首先经历一个以合作、借鉴等方式为主的融合阶段，最终基于各自优势，并针对不同的风险客户进行业务领域的重新分化。
［关键词］ P2P网络借贷；互联网金融；商业银行；金融服务
［Abstract］ Since the world’s first P2P lending platform, the Zopa, was established in Britain in 2005, P2P, a new lending model, is rapidly accepted by lenders and borrowers in market. It is expected that international P2P platform will develop into one in which financial products are increasingly specialized and complex, the level of asset securitization gradually increases, risk-pricing ability is improved and investors can receive more professional financial service. Currently, lending scale in P2P platform is still small, the speciality of its risk-pricing and the management of risk and cost have not been tested yet. The possibility of commercial banks dying out due to the impact of P2P platform is very little. First, P2P platform and the commercial banks will cooperate and learn from each other, then they make use of their own advantages to divide business range according to customer’s risks.
［Key words］ P2P network lending; internet finance; commercial bank; financial service
商业银行知识产权保护问题研究
张 炜
［摘 要］ 商业银行在业务创新和市场竞争中，需要通过实施有效的知识产权保护以实现创新收益的最大化和提高企业核心竞争力。本文在研究中国商业银行知识产权保护现状的基础上，指出中国商业银行知识产权保护存在的主要问题包括：目前中国商业银行知识产权保护的战略意识和风险意识仍有待加强，知识产权保护管理制度尚不完善，外部知识产权保护法治环境亦有待改善。因此，需要进一步加强和改进商业银行知识产权保护工作，包括从战略高度重视知识产权保护；完善知识产权保护管理机制和工作制度；提升知识产权保护技术水平；推动知识产权保护法治环境的改善等。
［关键词］ 商业银行；知识产权；知识产权保护；法律
［Abstract］ In the process of business innovation and market competition, commercial banks need effective protection of intellectual property in order to maximize the benefits of innovation and improve core competitiveness. Based on the study of the status of the protection, this paper analyses the main problems in the protection of the intellectual property of Chinese commercial banks. The conclusion of the paper is that Chinese commercial banks should reinforce the strategy of the protection of intellectual property and raise risk alertness; the management systems for the protection are not perfect; the external legal environment for the protection needs to be improved. Therefore, it’s necessary to strengthen and improve the protection of intellectual property further, attach great importance to the strategy of the protection of intellectual property, improve the management mechanism, systems and technical level of the protection; promote the improvement in legal environment, and so on.
［Key words］ commercial bank; intellectual property; protection of intellectual property; law
商业银行新型监督体系的运行流程及系统架构设计
牛 刚
［摘 要］ 本文对商业银行新型监督体系的运行流程及系统架构进行了创新设计，认为新型监督体系的运行流程应集风险识别、确认、计量、评估、报告于一体，通过风险监测、质量检测和履职管理三种途径收集风险事件，完成风险的识别确认，通过构建风险计量指标体系实现风险信息的准确量化，通过采用定性、定量等方法实现某机构或业务面临风险的分析评估，并按照规定级次、内容、频率完成风险管理情况的报告；全新的监督系统架构应依托概念模型，从人员流、业务流、信息流三个方面进行统筹设计，支撑起整个新型监督体系的高效运转。
［关键词］ 商业银行；事后监督；监督体系；运行流程；系统架构
［Abstract］ This paper presents an innovative design of the operational process and systemic structure of commercial bank’s new monitoring systems. The author of the paper argues that the operational process of new monitoring systems should incorporate risk identification, recognition, measurement, assessment, report in one; the collection of risk events and the recognition of risk should be completed by three ways, risk monitoring, quality testing and performance management; index systems should be constructed to quantify risk information accurately; the qualitative and quantitative methods should be used in the analysis and assessment of the risks in an organization or business, and the reports of risk management should be completed according to the rules of grade, content and frequency; a fully-new structure of monitoring systems should rely on the conceptual model and the systemic design of personnel, business, information, so as to support the efficient operation of the entire new monitoring system.
［Key words］ commercial bank; subsequent monitoring; monitoring system；operational process; systemic structure
境内银行间外汇市场人民币汇率定价权研究
夏园园 宋晓玲
［摘 要］ 本文以境内外汇市场即期汇率、香港离岸市场人民币即期汇率和人民币汇率中间价为研究对象，研究境内外汇市场的货币定价权问题。研究表明，境内外汇市场具有一定的人民币定价权，与香港离岸人民币市场存在相互影响，境内人民币日间波动幅度的扩大强化了境内人民币定价权；中国境内银行间外汇市场人民币定价权不完全由管制赋予；境内外汇市场人民币汇率的形成已经具备一定的市场基础，可以在一定程度上反映市场供需及预期；人民币汇率中间价具有显著的外生性。基于研究结果，本文认为境内汇率形成机制的市场化是境内人民币定价权巩固的基础。
［关键词］ 银行间外汇市场；人民币汇率；货币定价权；离岸市场
［Abstract］ Based on the data of domestic RMB foreign exchange spot rate, Hong Kong RMB offshore foreign exchange spot rate and central parity rate of RMB foreign exchange, this paper researches the pricing power of domestic foreign exchange market. The results of the paper show that the domestic foreign exchange market has a certain pricing power of RMB exchange rate, and there is a mutual influence between the domestic market and the Hong Kong offshore RMB market; the increase in daily fluctuation of domestic RMB foreign exchange reinforces the pricing power. The pricing power of domestic foreign exchange market is not fully assigned by regulatory institution. The formation of domestic RMB foreign exchange rate has some market basis, which can reflect market supply, demand and expectation to some extent. The central parity rate of RMB foreign exchange is significantly exogenous. According to the above results, the paper argues that the market-oriented formation mechanism of foreign exchange rate is the foundation to reinforce the pricing power of domestic RMB foreign exchange rate.
［Key words］ interbank foreign exchange market; RMB exchange rate; currency pricing power ; offshore market
NIM及其变动趋势与中国银行业盈利水平
金 昱
［摘 要］ 中国商业银行NIM与1年期存贷款基准利率差之间存在显著的正相关关系，未来随着中国利率市场化的全面实现，银行NIM可能面临巨大的下行压力。本文的实证研究显示，中国银行业保持净利润增长所需保持的NIM水平受GDP增速和银行不良贷款率变化的影响尤为显著，未来中国商业银行将面临GDP增速下滑和银行不良贷款率的上升趋势，要求必须保持一定的NIM水平才能实现盈利持续增长。面对严峻的外部挑战，中国银行业需要将更有效的利差管理与经营转型、风险控制紧密结合，积极创新求变，顺应外部经营环境变化的趋势与要求。
［关键词］ 中国银行业；NIM；利率市场化；利差管理；经营转型；风险控制
［Abstract］There is a significant and positive correlation between the benchmark interest rate of one-year’s deposit-loan and the NIM of Chinese commercial banks. In the future, interest rate will be fully liberalized in China and the NIM may decline greatly. The empirical research in this paper shows that the NIM level to maintain the net-profit growth of Chinese commercial banks is significantly impacted by the GDP growth and the changes in non-performing-loan rate. Chinese commercial banks will face a declining GDP growth and a rising non-performing-loan rate, so they need enough NIM to maintain sustainable profit growth. Because of the severe challenges, Chinese commercial banks should combine more effective spread management with operational transformation and risk control, innovate business and follow the trends in external environment and requirements.
［Key words］ China banking sector; NIM; liberalization of interest rate; spread management; operational transformation; risk control
银行持股行为对风险与绩效的影响
林煜恩 池祥萱 李 乐
［摘 要］ 本文使用1999~2011年半年度长期投资数据，对中国上市银行持股行为对银行风险、绩效的影响进行实证研究。目的在于检验持股行为是否会改变银行高管的风险态度，并进而对银行绩效产生影响。分析结果表明：银行持股数目越多，银行的经营风险越高，但不影响银行未来绩效；银行持股绩效不影响银行的经营风险以及未来绩效；银行存在轻微的赌资效应，银行持股绩效越高，会增加银行未来报酬率的独特性风险。这些结果显示持股不利于银行的风险管理以及绩效的提升，高管人员仍应将重心放在存贷款业务上，以做好风险管控工作。
［关键词］ 持股行为；银行风险；银行绩效；赌资效应；强化承诺效应
［Abstract］ Based on the half-year’s data of long-term investments during 1999~2011, this paper empirically researches the influence of listed bank’s stock holdings on its risks and performance. The purpose of the paper is to examine whether the stock holdings will change the bank executive’s attitude toward risks and impact the bank’s performance. The results of the paper show that the more stocks the bank holds, the higher the risks are, however, which does not impact bank’s performance in the future; the performance of bank’s stock holdings does not impact the corporation’s operational risks and performance in the future; there is a slight house-money effect, and the improvement in the performance of corporation’s stock holdings will increase the indiosyncratic risks of stock return. These results show that bank’s stock holdings are not conducive to its risk management and performance improvement. The bank’s executives should attach importance on deposit and loan business and control risks.
［Key words］ stock holding; bank’s risk; bank’s performance; house-money effect; escalation of commitment
中国商业银行声誉风险经济资本的度量
胡 敏 韩俊莹
［摘 要］ 本文基于中国某大型商业银行2003~2012年的声誉风险损失数据，在对样本数据进行概率分布函数拟合的基础上，运用蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）模拟法计算该商业银行总的声誉风险经济资本需求。研究发现，该商业银行声誉风险发生频数符合Logistic分布，而声誉风险损失余额符合对数正态分布。文章认为，在使用蒙特卡洛模拟法计算商业银行声誉风险的经济资本需求时，很难排除分布函数选择上的主观性对结果的影响。因此，在完善中国商业银行声誉风险经济资本度量模型与方法的同时，应加强对声誉风险事件分级分类管理、建立起中国商业银行声誉风险损失数据库。
［关键词］ 商业银行；声誉风险；风险度量；经济资本；蒙特卡洛模拟
［Abstract］ Based on the data of the losses from the reputation risks of a large commercial bank in China during 2003~2012 and the fitting of sample data into the Probability Distribution Function, this paper uses Monte Carlo simulation method to measure the total economic capitals for reputation risks of the commercial bank. It is found that the reputation risk frequency of the commercial bank corresponds with the Logistic Distribution, and the balance of the losses from reputation risks corresponds with the Log-Normal Distribution. The paper concludes that it is difficult to exclude the influence of subjectivity on the choice of distribution function while the economic capitals are measured with Monte Carlo simulation method. Therefore, besides improving the model and method for the measurement of economic capitals, it is necessary to enhance the grade and classification management of reputation risk events, and establish a loss database of the reputation risks of Chinese commercial banks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; reputation risk; measurement of risk; economic capital; Monte Carlo simulation
基于FDIC实践的中国上市银行存款保险费率测算
敬志勇 王周伟
［摘 要］ 本文以美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）实施存款保险制度框架为基础，测算中国各上市银行2011~2012年的存款保险费率和存款保险制度成本负担。结果表明，实施显性存款保险制度将显著增加银行的保险费负担，现阶段中国大范围推行显性存款保险制度存在一定的制度执行阻力；中国显性存款保险制度应当实现银行存款全覆盖，但应当分批参保，先在总体风险小的银行间推行，再在风险相对较高的银行间推行，以确保存款保险基金的保障能力；短期内高风险银行需要政府担保，但中国最终应当建立独立于政府的市场化显性存款保险制度。
［关键词］ 存款保险制度；存款保险费率；存款保险基金；联邦存款保险公司
［Abstract］ Based on the system framework by which the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation(FDIC) implements deposit insurance system, this paper calculates the deposit insurance rates and system costs of Chinese listed banks during 2011~2012. The results show that the implementation of explicit deposit insurance system will obviously increase the insurance burden of banks, and the large-scale implementation of explicit deposit insurance system in present stage will face resistance; the system should cover all banks, but banks should be insured one batch after the other, and the overall-low-risk banks are insured first, then the relatively-high-risk ones, so as to ensure the ability of deposit insurance funds to provide protection; in the short term, the high-risk banks need government’s guarantees, but China should finally establish a market-oriented explicit deposit insurance system independent of the government.
［Key words］ deposit insurance system; deposit insurance rate; deposit insurance fund; FDIC