The Chinese economy is on track to fare well this year if recent natural disasters do not disrupt grain supply and fuel high inflation, said Zhao Xiaoyu, vice-president of the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The global economy is also unlikely to encounter a double dip, he told China Daily in an exclusive interview.
Despite the fall in July in the country's procurement managers' index (PMI), which measures economic expansion, policymakers will introduce new supportive measures if its economic slowdown continues, making it still attractive for foreign investment, analysts said.
"The only problem for the Chinese economy is the potential impact of the natural disasters on its grain supply," Zhao said.
"If the grain supply does not suffer much, it will not cause high inflation and the Chinese economy will not have major problems."
The nation suffered severe droughts and low temperatures early this year and widespread devastating floods later in the summer. The output of grain harvested this summer fell for the first time in seven years, causing concerns that it will push up the price index, although the output dropped by 0.3 percent year-on-year.
But any hike in the country's consumer inflation will be temporary and inflation for the whole year can still be within the government's pre-set target of 3 percent, analysts said.
The prices of agricultural products rose 1.6 percent month-on-month in the first three weeks of July, compared with a decline of 1.6 percent in June, weekly data from the Ministry of Commerce showed.
"The jump in food prices was caused by severe flooding in many provinces in July," said Nomura Securities in a report on July 29. It forecast that the upsurge in agricultural product prices will make China's consumer price index jump to 3.5 percent year-on-year in July from 2.9 percent in June, the highest reading in 20 months.
|