I. Precious Metals
Gold

Gold rose 0.52 percent at $1,311.24 per ounce, in line with our expectations. U.S. shares steadied after opening lower, sending the dollar index lower.

We said yesterday that “The dollar index will be determined by the Wall Street, that will not turn sour in real sense unless U.S. stocks stabilize. Gold bulls can find two tailwinds within the day. First, the dollar would pull back in the near term. But most gains out of it are expected to lose ahead of the morning bell of the Wall Street, while $1,300 will be tested afterwards. Second, Wall Street opens steadily.” In real world, gold and silver softened soon after the morning bell the Wall Street, but steadied later along with the stock market, largely falling into our estimates.

Gold is expected to rebound further as the dollar’s correction would continue in anticipation of steady and resilient U.S. shares.

Silver

Silver was up 0.24 percent at $16.40 an ounce. It followed the previous session’s trajectory, recouping most losses after Wall Street opened lower, in line with our forecast. We maintain our view that silver is expected to see remarkable rebound in the coming sessions.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil

Brent crude futures rose 26 cents to settle at $73.62 a barrel, a 0.35 percent gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 50 cents to settle at $68.43 a barrel, a 0.74 percent increase.

Oil prices were boosted by OPEC production cuts and the potential for new U.S. sanctions against Iran, but gains were limited by growing U.S. crude inventories. We maintained our view that correction is expected to extend, as oil prices have bottomed. In this phase, bearish news, instead of bullish news, will draw more attention.

Copper

Copper closed up 0.1 percent at $6,827 a tonne on Thursday as the dollar weakened. Despite of its strength during the session, the closing prices were still under the resistance of the 200-day moving average. Risk lingers.

Soybean

The USDA reported U.S. soybean export sales at 886,200 tonnes last week, in line with expectations. Chicago Board of Trade July soybean futures rose 10-1/4 cents at $10.53-1/4 a bushel on Thursday. July soyoil climbed 0.21 cents to 30.81 per pound. July soymeal fell $2.10 to $398.60 per ton.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
                        Zhao Yifei